【禁聞】無視中央調控 各地房價大漲

【新唐人2011年4月1日訊】中國多個地方政府最近發佈了住房價格調控目標，只有北京市與中央政府控制房價上漲的目標一致，而其他地方政府都支持房價上漲。業內人士認為，在通脹及土地財政難改觀的背景下，樓市調控就是空話。

中共國務院今年1月發佈“新國八條”房地產調控措施，要求各地在一季度前公布房價調控目標。目前超過40個城市公布了目標，而且，絕大多數城市將漲幅定在10%，或與當地國內生產總值（GDP）增速和居民人均可支配收入漲幅掛鈎。

《路透社》引述「中國指數研究院」數據信息中心總經理葛海峰的話：現在各地出臺的房價調控目標感覺像漲價目標，與社會公眾預想的完全不一樣。據「中國指數研究院」報告顯示，2010年中國多數城市房價上漲接近或超過20%，北京房價高達37.1%。

而莫尼塔證劵公司房地產分析師王沛表示，本來調控價格的數字就是個文字遊戲，但現在地方政府做的有點太過火了，原則上房價跟著GDP走沒有問題，但目前城市房價已處於不合理水準，若進一步增長，居民購買力將進一步弱化。

對此，知名財經評論家葉檀博士也認為，這次地方政府被迫公布房地產價格上漲目標，惟一的好處是讓我們認清了現實。

她指出，房地產調控已經成為中央政府的獨角戲；地方政府希望房地產價格繼續上漲。中央房地產調控遭到地方政府的普遍挑戰，國內的既得利益階層對房地產調控嗤之以鼻。可能的後果是，中國的貧富差距繼續惡化，而且中國的中端製造業將全部覆沒。

究其背後的原因，《華爾街日報》引述瑞信(Credit Suisse)分析師杜勁松的看法，地方政府並沒有對房價調控真正用心，地方政府仍然支持房地產開發商設定的高房價，因為房地產開發商繳納的土地出讓金是地方政府的主要收入來源。

英國《金融時報》也有類似觀點，報導說：“地方政府普遍性的對調控房價冷淡，是因為目前的『土地財政』制度。”

3月30號香港《經濟日報》評論說，內地樓市有“蓄價待漲”之勢，樓市調控成效不彰，說明中央政策失去權威。如果中央對地方繼續忍氣吞聲“河蟹”了事，無論再多出幾輪調控措施，恐怕都難見成效。

28號，大陸只有40個城市公布了樓價調控目標，不足國內城市總數約660個的一成。香港《蘋果日報》評論認為，各大城市在執行國務院樓價調控令時的觀望態度，再次印證中共「政令不出中南海」的困局。

而一線大城市中，上海、深圳、北京則趕在29號公布了調控目標，但也只有北京市與中央政府控制房價上漲的目標一致。

新唐人記者宋風、周 綜合報導。

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Housing Prices Continue to Soar

Many local governments recently published

their objectives for housing price control,

with only Beijing being in line with that

of the Central Government to inhibit price soar.

All others are in favor of the price hike.

Experts believe that it is hard to control prices,

given the high inflation and poor local revenue

derived from the land.

With 8 new rules on housing price control

released in January 2011, State Council required

all local governments to publish control objectives

before Q1. 40+ cities published their objectives,

with most projecting a rise but within 10%,

or to match local GDP growth or per capita income.

Ge Haifeng, a manager in China Index Res. Institute

told Reuters: “Objectives released by each city

look like ones for price hike, very different from

what the public expected. A report by our institute

indicated, that housing prices in most cities have

increased 20%+ in 2010, topped by Beijing』s 37.1%.

Wang Pei, property analyst from Moneta Securities:

“Local authorities went too far in their objectives.

Generally it is ok to tie housing prices to growth

of GDP, but since the current prices are already

irrationally high, a further increase would weaken

the residents』 buying power.”

Dr. Ye Tang, a renowned financial commentator said,

that the only merit of forcing local governments

to post their objectives

is for us to clearly understand the reality.

She said, that real estate has become a monologue

of the Central Government. Local authorities hope

for continued rise of housing prices.

The housing price control policy has met

with local governments』 challenge.

Those people of vested interests scorn this policy.

The possible consequences are a widened wealth gap

and a perishing intermediate manufacturing sector.

For the real reasons, Du Jingsong, an analyst from

Credit Suisse, told Wall Street Journal that

local governments are not serious

about housing price control, continuing to support

developers』 high house prices, since the land use

fees are a major source of revenue for them.

Financial Times said that the local governments

are generally indifferent to the control policy

due to the current fiscal system of 『land finance.』

Hong Kong based Economic Daily said on March 30,

that Chinese housing prices are on a temporary halt

but will soar later, so the control policy

is not effective, signifying Central Government』s

lose of credibility. If the Central Government

tolerates this, it will not be effective

no matter how many policies are released.

On March 28, only 40 out of 660 cities published

their objectives, less than 10%. Apple Daily wrote,

that the 『wait and see』 attitude of most cities

prior to publishing their objectives indicates

the dilemma that Chinese Communist Party』s orders

could hardly go beyond the Zhongnanhai walls.

Among the major Chinese cities, Shanghai, Shenzhen

and Beijing published their objectives on March 29,

but only Beijing is in line with Central Government.

NTD reporters Song Feng and Zhou Ping.