【禁聞】發改委“摁葫蘆”3月通脹仍超高

【新唐人2011年4月16日訊】大陸國家統計局最近發佈3月份經濟資料。雖然在此之前當局通過行政干預，不斷加強物價調控力度，但3月份的居民消費物價指數（CPI）同比增長仍然高達5.4%，超過預期，創下32個月以來的最大漲幅。學者指出，當局用行政手段去控制物價上漲的做法不可取，價格管制並不利於發展。

大陸統計局於本週五（4月15號）發佈的經濟資料顯示，中國3月份的通脹率為5.4%，創下了2008年以來的最大漲幅。其中，食品價格上漲仍然是通脹飆升的主要因素。

《網易》刊載了這一消息後，立即引來網民的熱議，短短几個小時之內，就有近4萬人參與討論。很多網民對這一資料的真實性表示質疑，認為實際通脹遠不止於此。

資料顯示，今年（2011年）第一季度大陸居民消費價格同比上漲5.0%。其中，食品上漲11.0%，居住上漲6.5%。

《法國國際廣播電臺》報導，德意志銀行大中華區首席經濟學家馬駿預料，中國通脹壓力會持續，6月份通脹率可能升到6%的全年高位。

中國對外經濟貿易大學國際投資研究室主任李長安在微博上表示，資料顯示當前的通脹形勢比較嚴峻，當局將會再次加息和上調存款準備金率。

雖然大陸央行自去年10月至今已經4度加息，但對調控通脹的效用十分有限。金融巨鱷索羅斯(George Soros)在日前的一個會議上表示，中共錯失了採用人民幣升值降低通脹的機會，中國的通脹有些失控。

而隨著通脹形勢的日益嚴峻，當局使用了越來越多的行政手段來干預物價。大陸發改委更是在近期，組織全國17家行業協會的負責人開會，要求各行業協會“不許漲價”。

中國經濟學者李華芳向《自由亞洲電臺》表示，當局這種通過行政手段去控制物價上漲的做法不可取。

李華芳：“它（當局）所追求的是短期的效果，而且他也比較追求表面上的效果，如果說行政手段能在極短的時間抑制物價，但物價會隨著運動式的干預方式放手之後就會立即反彈，之前沒有通過行政的方式，讓市場自我去調節的話，這個價格的波動可能是比較小的。”

大陸發改委在壓制各行業漲價需求的同時，卻於近期上調成品油價，而且準備在部分地區，調高電價，這自然引來一片質疑。

《華爾街日報》專欄作家崔宇指出，當局這是厚此薄彼。一方面，不讓產業鏈中下游的市場化企業漲價﹔另一方面，卻讓政府的壟斷企業漲價。他認為，這是在開倒車，這樣的價格管制並不利於發展。

他強調，如果發改委試圖以一己之力，通過行政干預將上下游價格一起摀住，重新扮演“國家計委”的角色，那更加令人擔憂。

北京經濟學家劉正山認為，問題的核心在於當局製造的“貨幣大放水”和低利率。不解決核心問題，政府的物價調控措施只能收到“摁壓葫蘆”的效果——它們被摁壓之後最終會爭相浮出水面。

新唐人記者李謙、王明宇綜合報導。

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March Infliatiion Still High in China

Economic data from recent bureau of statistics

showed that the consumer price index (CPI) in March

is higher than expected, up by 5.4% year to year,

the largest increase in the past 32 months, disregarding

authorities continue to strengthen efforts to control

price increase. Scholars pointed out that using

administrative means to control price increase

is conducive to development.

On Friday April 15, economic data released by bureau

of statistics indicated that China』s March inflation rate

was 5.4%, marking the largest increase since 2008.

Among them, food-price soaring is still a major factor.

After EaseNet published this news, it attracted heated

discussions within hours among 40,000 netizens.

Many of them questioned the authenticity of this news

and believed that the actual inflation was much higher.

Statistics show that in 2011, the CPI rose 5% in

the first quarter for mainland residents. Among them,

food prices rose 11.0% and housing rose 6.5%.

Radio France Internationale reported that Ma Jun,

chief economist for Greater China at Deutsche Bank

predicted that the pressure will continue, and in June

inflation rate may rise to 6% of the annual high.

Li Changan, director of China Foreign Economic and

Trade Research Office said in his Micro-blog that

the current inflation situation is fairly severe, it will again

raise interest rates and adjust the deposit reserve ratio.

Although the Central Bank in China had raised

interest rates 4 times since last October,

but it brought limited result. In a recent meeting,

financial Guru George Soros said that China lost

an opportunity to control inflation when it failed

to act on RMB appreciation.

With inflation is getting worse, authorities have used

more administrative measures to interfere with prices.

Recently, Development and Reform Commission

gathered leaders from 17 industry associations

and requested them not to “ increase price”.

Economist Li Huafang told Radio Free Asia, “Using

administrative means to control price is not smart.”.

Lihua Fang:"What authorities wanted is only a

short-term effect. It illustrated the superficial

result: if price can be controlled within a very

short time by administrative means,

it will soon rebound after the intervention stops.

If we allow it to self-regulate without manipulation,

the price fluctuation will be relatively small.”

While suppressing prices of various industries, recently

Development and Reform Commission also tried to

control refined oil prices and increased electric prices

in some areas, which raised suspicions.

Wall Street Journal columnist Cui Yu pointed out that

this is unfair treatment. To prevent smaller enterprises

from price increases, but allow the state-run

enterprises to monopolize the market. He believes

that price control is conducive to development.

He stressed: “It is more worrisome if Development

and Reform Commission attempts to play the role of

『the state planning commission』, and single-handedly

control prices through administrative means.”

Beijing economist Liu ZhengShan believed that

“monetary policy” and “low interest rate” from

the authorities had not solved the core problems.

Using administrative means to control prices is like

“pressed down gourd”, which will float back to

the surface in the end.

NTD reporters Liqian and Wang Mingyu