【禁聞】中國外儲攀新高 專家：大包袱

【新唐人2011年4月20日訊】大陸央行公布了中國國家外匯儲備餘額，達到30447億美元。4月18號，央行行長周小川承認，外匯儲備已經超過了中國需要的合理水準。而西方的輿論認為，中國天量外儲並不代表幸福，反而是中國的大包袱、大麻煩。

今年一季度，中國儘管出現了10億2千萬美元的貿易逆差，但是4月14號央行公布的資料顯示，截至3月末，外匯儲備餘額為30447億美元，同比增長24.4%。首次突破3萬億美元大關。

據《路透社》的分析說，外儲每增加1美元，中國國內就相應的需要發行約6.5元人民幣，向經濟注入更多的貨幣。

簡天倫博士（經濟專家）：“持有3萬億美元的外匯儲備，對於中國來說，從經濟上是很不合適的。 浪費中國人的錢，等於是全中國人民在補貼國外。由於購買很多美國國債，使得美國的利率下降。就是把中國的錢補貼美國。”

《路透》的分析認為，中國天量外匯儲備推高通脹、攪亂經濟平衡，還給國家的貨幣管理者製造了很大的麻煩。

簡天倫認為，中國外匯儲備影響通貨膨脹，與人民幣被長期低估有直接關係。

簡天倫博士（經濟專家）：“低估人民幣匯率，使得外匯儲備增大，佔國民生產總值的比例越來越高，由此而帶來的貨幣供應量的增大及比例，也越來越高，幾乎達到極限。所以這樣就推動了中國的通貨膨脹的增長。可以說最近幾個月來，通貨膨脹的增長很大程度是人民幣低估、外匯儲備的增加造成的。”

簡天倫表示，中共政府其實並不想提高外匯儲備，主要目地是要維持經濟增長的勢頭。

簡天倫：“如果中國的出口不能持續增長，中國的GDP國內生產總值就不可能有現在的速度，就很可能要滑下來，所以它雖然明知外匯儲備過高，想把它減下來，它也沒有動作，因為它要維持GDP增長，維持GDP增長，它才能維持政權的穩定。要不然經濟出了問題，失業率出了問題，動盪就更厲害。”

4月18號，央行行長周小川在清華大學「金融高端講壇」上表示，外匯儲備已經超過了中國需要的合理水準，導致市場流動性過多，也增加了央行對沖工作的壓力。

簡天倫：“解決巨額外匯儲備的情況有很多方法。一個就是提高人民幣匯率，使得出口不至於這麼廉價，換回外貿順差﹔再一個可以提高國內的工資， 還有就是國內的通貨膨脹，使得國內的產品出口價格上漲。現在中國是在用後者，用中國的國內的通貨膨脹來解決外匯儲備出超太多的問題，實際上等於犧牲國內大多數人利益，來解決這個問題。

大陸經濟學者邱林在他的博客中寫道：“3億美元外匯儲備屬於中國全體國民。動用這些外匯儲備就應為民眾辦實事。

中國網民也認為，儲備再多，老百姓也沒有得到任何實惠。政府應該藏賦予民，讓人民把這些美元花掉！

新唐人記者李靜、肖顏採訪報導。

USD3 trillion FER of China

China』s foreign exchange reserve (FER) has reached

USD3.044 trillion, exceeding country needs level,

said China』s central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan.

According to Western media,

China』s large foreign exchange reserve buildup

is bringing more trouble than benefits.

China's FER rose 24.4% year-on-year by March end

to USD3.044 trillion, despite the USD1.02 billion

in quarterly trade deficit, according to data released

on April 14 by the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Reuters analysis shows that for every dollar

that goes into reserve, China prints about RMB6.5,

adding even more cash to its economy.

Dr. Jian Tianlun (economy expert): “USD3 trillion

in FER is inappropriate for China』s economy.

It is wasting Chinese people』s money

to subsidize other countries.

Excessive purchase of US bonds will decrease

the US interest rate and thus subsidize

the US economy with Chinese money.”

According to Reuters analysis, China』s large FER

leads to inflation, disrupts economic balance,

and causes trouble to the country』s money minders.

Jian believes China』s high FER and inflation rate

is directly related to the undervalued RMB currency.

Jian Tianlun: “Undervalued RMB causes the FER

to expand, relative to GDP, stoking up currency

issuance nearly to the limit. Inflation rate thus rises.

So we can say that the recent surge in inflation

is caused by undervalued RMB and increased FER.”

Jian believes China』s real goal is not

to increase FER, but to maintain growth rate.

Jian: “Without continuous increase in exports,

China』s GDP will not grow at its current rate.

So China is not taking any action to reduce

its excessive FER, because it needs to maintain

the growth rate of GDP to maintain stability.

Any problems in economy or employment

can trigger social turbulence.”

“Foreign-exchange reserve has exceeded

the reasonable level that our country actually needs,”

said central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan

in a speech at Tsinghua University on April 18.

The rapid increase of the reserve has led to

excessive liquidity and fuelled inflation pressures.

Jian: “There are many solutions to the FER problem:

one is to raise RMB』s exchange rate & export prices,

thus recover trade surplus and increase home wages.

Another is to increase export prices through inflation.

China adopts the latter, sacrificing the majority

of Chinese people interest to solve the FER problem.”

Chinese economists Qiu Lin wrote on his blog:

“USD3 trillion in FER belongs to Chinese people.

It should be used to benefit the people.”

Chinese netizens too believe that the government

should let the people benefit from this large FER.

NTD reporters Li Jing and Xiao Yan