【禁聞】銀行房貸壓力測試 房價會大跌嗎？

【新唐人2011年4月27日訊】大陸對銀行業金融機構展開新一輪房貸壓力測試，而且這次設定的房價可能下跌幅度更大。那麼，在中共出臺了一系列的房價調控政策之後，中國的房價會不會大幅下降呢？我們聽專家的分析。

最近，中國銀監會主席劉明康在今年第二次“經濟金融形勢通報會”上表示，將進行新一輪的「銀行房地產貸款壓力測試」。

假設的情況分為三種：分別為房價平均下跌30%、利率上調27個基點；和房價下跌40%、利率上調54個基點；以及房價下跌50%、利率上調108個基點。這一輪壓力測試的最後結果，將決定銀監會是否出臺進一步緊縮房地產信貸的政策。

新一輪房貸壓力測試還將北京、上海、深圳、廣州、重慶、杭州、南京等7大城市，列為房貸高風險地區，按照房價下跌幅度的條件，測算房地產貸款受衝擊的情況。

那麼，中國的房價真的會大跌嗎？

美籍華人，經濟時政評論家草庵居士認為，中國的房地產泡沫已經達到頂峰，但與全球的其他房地產泡沫有明顯的不同。

草庵居士（經濟時政評論家）：“在中國是地方財政非常依賴房地產，而且土地不是個體，不是私人所有，而是由政府所有，政府出讓。所以這就決定了中國房地產非常明顯的特徵，這個特徵就是房地產的價格跟土地的財政、政府的收入有密切相關的關聯。”

據官方資料顯示，去年中國國有土地有償出讓收入超過2.9萬億元人民幣，同比增加106.2%。“十一五”期間，也就是2006-2010年，中國土地出讓總收入高達7萬多億元人民幣。在有些縣市，土地出讓金佔財政收入比重已超過50%，甚至佔80%以上。

大陸國家土地副總督察甘藏春也承認，地方政府客觀上促使了多賣地、快賣地、早賣地、賤賣地，犧牲了子孫後代的利益。

最近，中共當局出臺了很多政策，聲稱要打壓房價，但中國多數城市的房價仍在上漲。

草庵居士指出，中共當局要求房地產商降低成本，以降低房屋售價，但實際上房地產商降價的空間是有限的。

草庵居士：“大家都知道在整個樓房建設當中，70%是土地跟稅費，而30%才是房地產成本和利率，真正的壓縮空間在於政府，而不在於房地產商，所以中國政府在目前的狀況下，它會不斷的出臺政策，調整，實際上是中央政府跟地方政府的博弈，而跟房地產（商）的關聯並不大。

4月18號，國家統計局最新公布的數據顯示，3月份70個大中城市，新建商品住宅環比價格下降的只有12個城市，同比價格下降的城市僅有2個。

草庵居士：“如果政府不打壓房地產，房地產走向極端的時候，資金就會崩潰，這時候，國營銀行就會承擔最大的損失，這時候整個中國經濟會陷入蕭條，陷入崩潰狀態。但是如果打壓房地產，地方政府收入就會減少，這種情況下，地方政府就會難以維持。矛盾就會從中央銀行方面轉嫁到中央與地方，地方與民眾之間，地方政府缺少資金，缺少人員維持，就會出現地方管制上的一個問題，地方政府也會出現暴亂的問題。”

上海財經評論人士葉檀在英國《金融時報》撰文說，每個人都希望面對健康、理性的市場，但中國的房地產市場既不健康也不理性。

那麼中國的房價由誰決定呢？葉檀說，行政手段是最肅殺的工具，可以讓市場瞬間凝結。她認為，中國的房地產價格不是能不能降的問題，而是敢不敢降的問題。

新唐人記者曾耀賢、肖顔、特約記者高紫檀採訪報導。

China Housing Prices To Fall?

Chinese banks have started a new round

of stress tests regarding mortgages. This time,

the housing prices are set to have a larger decline.

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has recently issued

new housing price control policies.

Will they cause the prices to decline?

China Banking Regulatory Commission』s (CBRC)

director Liu Mingkang said during

the 2nd Economic Briefing that a new round

of bank mortgage stress test was underway.

The stress test will have 3 scenarios:

house price (HP) declines by 30%,

while interest rate (IR) increases by 27 bps;

HP decreases by 40%, while IR is up by 54 bps;

HP decreases by 50% while IR is up by 108 bps.

CBRC will decide according to the stress test results

whether it needs to tighten its housing credit policy.

Seven cities are classified as being at high-risk

for mortgages. They are Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen,

Guangzhou, Chongqin, Hangzhou and Nanjing.

The test will estimate the impact on mortgages,

based on the extent of housing price drop.

Will China』s housing prices have a dramatic decline?

Economist and commentator Willam F. Mei said,

that China's real estate bubble has reached its peak,

but it is distinct from other real estate markets.

Mei: “In China, local public finances rely

on real estate. The land is owned and let

by the government. So China』s real estate price

is largely linked with land finances

and government revenues.”

According to official data, in 2010 the paid transfer

of state-owned land gained over RMB2.9 trillions,

a year-on-year growth of 106.2%. Similarly,

RMB7 trillions were earned from 2006 to 2010.

In some counties, land transfer revenue

is ranging from 50% to 80% of the total revenue.

China』s Land Bureau Deputy Chief Gan Zangchun

admitted that local governments hastened people

to sell land cheaply at future generations expense.

Despite a lot of new policies to curb house prices,

they still increase in many Chinese cities.

Mei said, CCP urged the estate developers to lower

housing prices by reducing construction costs.

However, there is a little room to reduce such costs.

Mei: “In the process of house construction,

70% of the price is composed of land cost and taxes,

only 30% is from construction costs and interests.

It is up to the government to reduce these costs.

The new policies reflect the in-fighting between

the CCP』s central and local governments.”

As per new data from National Bureau of Statistics,

only in 12 out of 70 large and mid-sized cities

the new commercial and residential buildings『

prices have dropped.

Mei: “If authorities don』t curb the real estate market,

and let it go to the extreme, finance would collapse.

The state-owned banks would bear the losses.

The entire economy would fall into depression.

If they curb the real estate market,

local governments』 income would be reduced.

They would have difficulty maintaining themselves.

Conflicts would be shifted from the central

to local governments, which lack of funds

and personnel to 』maintain stability』 would lead

to control issues. There would be a turmoil.”

Shanghai-based financial commentator Ye Tan

wrote in the UK』s Financial Times, that

everyone wants a healthy and rational market,

but China's real estate market is neither.

Who decides China's housing prices? Ye Tan said,

administrative measures are the most chilling tools.

They have the power to freeze the market instantly.

She believes that China's housing price issue is,

do the authorities dare to curb the prices or not.

NTD reporters Zeng Yaoxian, Xiao Yan and Gao Zitan