【禁聞】金正日訪中 謀求擺脫政治經濟困境

【新唐人2011年5月25日訊】在中日韓舉行三國首腦峰會的同時，朝鮮領導人金正日正在中國訪問，這是金正日罕見的一年來第三次訪華。外界分析指出，這表示目前朝鮮的經濟狀況難以支撐，金正日不得不再次出面尋求中國的援助，謀求擺脫國際上的孤立局面，以及國內政治、經濟所面臨的困境。

據韓國媒體報導，金正日5月20號乘坐火車抵達吉林延邊朝鮮族自治州的圖們地區，途經牡丹江、長春，21號參觀了長春第一汽車廠，據說這家企業將參與一項對朝投資。

中共總理溫家寶22號在東京向韓國總統李明博，透露了中國邀請金正日訪華的目地，是為了讓朝鮮了解中國的發展狀況、為朝鮮提供借鑒。

金正日21號晚，從長春乘坐專列29個小時直達江蘇揚州，23號參觀了揚州一家超市的牛奶、蔬菜等商品，然後前往邗（Hán）江經濟開發區，參觀了晶澳太陽能科技公司。24號金正日抵達南京，參觀了熊貓電子、奧運賽場和世界博物館等。當天下午前往北京，與中共領導人會談。

朝鮮缺乏能源、糧食和重要的原材料，並且因為「核項目」而受到聯合國的制裁。《美國之音》23號指出，中國擔心朝鮮經濟崩潰將導致難民潮湧入中國。

韓國總統府發言人將金正日這次的訪問稱為「一次教育之旅」。日本《朝日新聞》則援引分析說，金正日這次訪華是在「尷尬的請求中國援助」，以緩解朝鮮正面臨的缺糧困境。

王維正（美國里奇蒙大學政治學教授）：「北朝鮮它的經濟可能真的已經面臨到非常嚴峻的地步。雖然幾年前有放出一些信息說希望能夠模仿中國的改革開放的一些政策，我想他可能也是有到中國去取經的味道。」

據《韓聯社》的報導，5月19號在韓國國會議員會館舉行的「對朝糧食援助研討會」上，世界糧食計劃署駐朝鮮代表克勞迪婭．勒爾(Claudia von Roehl)表示，由於糧食產量和國際援助減少，600萬名朝鮮居民遭受缺糧之苦。

美國國務院的朝鮮人權特使羅伯特．金(Robert King)24號訪問朝鮮，評估那裏的食品短缺情況，同時提出朝鮮的人權問題。韓美兩國將根據評估結果決定是否重啟對朝糧食援助。

去年因天安艦和延坪島挑釁事件，韓美兩國徹底切斷了對朝鮮的援助。在這個境況下，據韓國《朝鮮日報》的報導說，金正日的妹夫張成澤5月底訪問吉林丹東，就鴨綠江下游的「黃金坪」租借給中國百年，簽署協議。

蘇展（加拿大拉瓦爾大學經濟學教授）：「北韓這幾年的問題實際上不是簡單的搞幾個甚麼特區，它必須要有一個體制的改革。在今天來講，北韓面臨著兩個大的政治問題，一個是東亞的緊張關係，尤其是由於北韓的一系列舉動；第二個政治問題就是它的繼承權的問題。」

《韓聯社》報導，朝鮮在2009年修改憲法，新憲法中去掉了「共產主義」一詞，首次寫入了「先軍思想」，以軍隊為優先。去年9月，金正日進一步延伸世襲獨裁體制，確立他的第三個兒子金正恩，為金氏政權的繼承人，金正恩年僅27歲。

而日本《讀賣新聞》報導說，金正恩在確定接班人地位後，經常發表重視經濟的言論，如「過去可以沒有糧食，但不能沒有子彈，如今是可以沒有子彈，但一定要有糧食」；他還說「要在3年內讓居民吃上米飯肉湯」。

22號，溫家寶在中日韓首腦峰會中，強調通過對話，緩解韓朝緊張關係，並向李明博總統重申了反對朝鮮擁有核武器的態度。

今年初，美中首腦會談，就朝鮮核問題商定重啟對話。中日韓首腦在22號的峰會中一致認為，朝鮮半島無核化將極大的促進東北亞的和平與穩定。而外界則指出，朝鮮「核項目」實際上是金正日和中共訛詐國際社會重要的一張牌。

新唐人記者李元翰、蕭宇綜合報導。

NK Seeks Help?

North Korean (NK) leader Kim Jong Il visited China,

during the summit of China, Japan and South Korea.

It is rare for Kim Jong Il to visit China three times

within a year. An outsider』 analysis pointed out

that this indicates NK』s seeking of help from China,

so NK would not face political and economic

difficulties at home and isolation internationally.

South Korean media reported that on May 20,

Kim Jong Il arrived in Yanbian Jilin by train,

via Mudanjiang and Changchun. He visited

the Changchun First Automobile on May 21.

It is learned that this company would invest in NK.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told Lee Myung-bak,

South Korean President on May 22 in Tokyo,

that the purpose of Kim』s visit is to understand

China』s development and thus gain a reference.

After a 29-hour train ride, Kim Jong Il arrived

at Yangzhou, Jiangsu. Kim visited a supermarket

and a solar technology company.

On May 24, he arrived at Nanking and visited

the Panda Electronics, Olympic Stadium

and the World Museum. In the afternoon,

he went to Beijing and talked with Chinese leaders.

North Korea lacks energy, food and essential raw

materials and also suffers under the United Nations』

sanction due to its nuclear program.

Voice of America pointed out on May 23,

that China was concerned with NK』s refugees rush

if NK would collapse due to economic catastrophe.

The South Korean presidential spokesman referred

to Kim』s visit as "an educational trip.”

Analysts in Japan said that Kim』s China visit

was an embarrassing request for assistance

from China to solve food shortage crisis in NK.

Wang Weizheng, a Professor of Political Science,

at the University of Richmond:

"N. Korea is probably facing economy hardships.

Although a few years ago it voiced out that it wants

to imitate China's reform and opening up policies.

I think he wants to learn something from China."

According to Yonhap, in South Korea was held

a "Seminar on food aid to North Korea.”.

Claudia von Roehl from the World Food Program

said on behalf of North Korea that due to reduction

of food production and international assistance,

6 million Koreans will suffer from food shortages.

Robert King, U.S. State Department's

NK human rights envoy, visited NK on May 24,

to assess the situation of food shortages there

and also to raise the issue with NKs' human rights.

Based on the assessment, Korea and the U.S.

will decide if food aid programs can restart in NK.

Due to the Cheonan and Yin Ping Island incidents

last year Korea and the U.S. completely cut off aids

to North Korea. Under this situation, Chosun Ilbo

of South Korea reported that Kim』s brother-in-law

Jang visited Jilin Province in May and signed

a lease of the “Golden Plain” at the downstream

of Yalu River to China for 100 years.

Su Zhan (Economics』 Professor, University of Laval,

Canada): "The problem North Korea faced recently

was not setting up special administrative regions

but it needed an institutional reform. NK is facing

two major political issues today, one is the tension

in East Asia, in particular a series of moves by NK,

the other is a question of its inheritance.”

Yonhap reported that in 2009 North Korea amended

the constitution and the word “communism”

was replaced by "military-first ideology."

Last September, Kim Jong Il extended

the hereditary dictatorship further and established

27-year-old Kim Zhengen (his third son) as his heir.

And Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun reported:

“After being confirmed as the heir, Kim Zhengen

frequently published his remarks about economy

such as 『In the past, we could tolerate no food,

but not without bullets, now we can tolerate

no bullets but not without food.』 He also said:

『All civilians will have rice and meat

within three years.』”

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stressed at the summit

on May 22, that through dialogues tensions between

North and South Korea could be eased,

but he too is opposing a nuclear North Korea.

The Korean nuclear issue was raised again

during the US-China summit early this year.

Then leaders from US, Japan and Korea agreed,

that denuclearization of the Korean peninsula

will greatly promote peace and stability

in Northeast Asia. An outsider pointed out

that North Korea』s nuclear program is actually

a scheme between China and North Korea

to blackmail the international community.

NTD reporters Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yu