【禁聞】中國高儲蓄率導致資產泡沫？

【新唐人2011年6月1日訊】在最近舉辦的“2011年陸家嘴金融論壇”上，大陸央行行長周小川表示，中國的高儲蓄率容易刺激資產泡沫的產生。他的這個說法，其他專家是怎麼看的呢？中國的高儲蓄率是否真的會導致資產泡沫？請看報導。

中國一直是一個高儲蓄率國家。從2009年的資料顯示，中國的儲蓄率高達46%。而今年4月末，人民幣存款餘額達到75.62萬億元。

儲蓄率是指個人或家庭可支配的收入總額中，儲蓄所佔的百分比。中國為甚麼儲蓄率如此之高呢？

南卡羅萊納州大學教授謝田認為，這其中有傳統文化的因素，但更主要的是，在中共統治下，社會保障體系不完善造成的。

謝田：“中國老百姓最害怕的是甚麼呢？一個是養老金、退休金﹔一個是醫療的費用﹔一個上學的費用。中國人民窮怕了，苦怕了，對未來又沒有依託感，對政府沒有信任，所以就造成中國大陸人的儲蓄率非常之高。”

據統計，中國有8億農民。2009年，中共推出“新農村養老保險”政策。中國社科院《2011年法治藍皮書》提出，“新農保”的費率水準和國家標準很低，參保農民每月僅有養老金99元，根本難以保障農民的基本生活。

今年兩會期間，據官方統計資料顯示，有65.5%的受訪者認為中國的“醫療費用過高”。此外，中國大學收費高已經成為民眾的一個沉重負擔，但據《時代商報》一項調查顯示，瀋陽的七成幼兒園收費高於大學。

中國的高儲蓄率是否導致資產泡沫的產生呢？經濟專家、簡天倫博士認為，這個說法並不正確。他認為，造成中國房地產泡沫的原因，與中國的貧富懸殊社會現象有很大關係。

今年4月，招商銀行和貝恩管理顧問公司聯合發佈了《2011中國私人財富報告》。報告顯示， 2010年，可投資資產一千萬人民幣以上的中國高淨值人士數量達50萬人，人均持有可投資資產約3000萬人民幣，共持有可投資資產15萬億人民幣。這部分人僅佔中國人口的萬分之四，而他們所持有的資產相當於中國個人投資總資產的25%。

簡天倫：“他們在2009年、2010、2011年，他們佔全國個人可投資資產的比率逐年上升，由23%到24%到25%。所以，由這麼少的人口，占有這麼多的可投資資產，這個地方，我覺得是中國房地產泡沫和其他資產泡沫最大的原因之一。”

按照中國高淨值人群地域分佈來看，北京、上海、浙江、江蘇、廣東都超過了3 萬人。而這5個省市的房價在中國也是名列前茅。

最近兩年，中國股票市場低迷，關於“股票市場要崩盤”的消息不斷傳來。謝田表示，中國股票市場也是中國權貴撈錢的場所。

英國《金融時報》專欄作家葉檀，形容中國的證券市場是一臺吸血機器。她在她的文章中提到，根據WIND資訊不完全統計，2010年上市的 340多支新股中，平均每支新股上市就有2.4位億萬富翁產生。與此形成鮮明對比的是，有調查顯示，在股市中賺錢的股民不足20%，近70%的股民虧錢。

但是，中國老百姓為甚麼還要把錢投入股票市場呢？

謝田：“民間、外資企業、其他投資銀行估計，中國的通貨膨脹至少在10%以上或15%。在這麼高的通貨膨脹之下，老百姓即使想儲蓄，他也不敢儲蓄，沒辦法儲蓄。所以很多人不得不把錢投入股市，而投入股市的錢，這些年也慢慢看清，實際上也是被大富、被操縱金融市場的中共特權階層給榨乾了。”

謝田指出，不管是房地產泡沫還是股票市場的泡沫，始作俑者都是中共的權貴集團，而與中國高儲蓄根本沒有關係。

新唐人記者李靜，蕭宇 採訪報導

Asset Bubble Due To High Savings?

Central Bank of China』 president, Zhou Xiaochuan,

said in the Lujiazui Financial Forum of 2011 that

China』s high saving rate might spawn asset bubbles.

Is this the case? What do other experts think?

Here is NTD』s detailed report on the issue.

China is long known as a high saving rate country.

2009 reports show the saving rates to be up to 46%.

RMB outstanding deposit is 75.6 trillion by Apr.』11.

Saving rate represents the percentage of savings

in individual』s total disposable income.

Why does China have such a high saving rate?

Xie Tian, professor at University of North Carolina,

said that Chinese tradition is one of the reasons,

but mostly this is due to the insecure social system

under the rule of Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Xie Tian: “Chinese people generally worry

about 3 things: retirement, health and education.

They have been kept poor for a long time,

with no security for the future, nor from the CCP,

and that triggers the huge saving rate record.”

There are reportedly 0.8 billion farmers in China.

In 2009, CCP released New Village Pension Scheme.

According to the Law Blue Book of 2011, published

by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

The standard rate of village pension in the scheme

was made notably low, with just RMB99 per month,

far from enough for a normal life.

During the two CCP congresses this year,

it was reported that 65.5% of interviewees thought

the medical expenses are too high.

Chinese high education charges are another burden.

Will China』s high saving rate spawn asset bubbles?

Economist Jian Tianlun thinks otherwise.

The real reason for China』s property bubbles

is the remarkable wealth gap in China, believes Jian.

In April, China Merchants Bank and Bain company

jointly issued the China』s Individual wealth of 2011.

It showed that by 2010, China had 500,000 HNWI

(High Net Worth Individuals) able to invest

RMB10+ million and each holding RMB30 million

investable, equating to a total of RMB15 trillion.

This group accounts 0.04% of China』s population,

but it enjoys 25% of China』s investment assets.

Jian Tianlun: “They enjoy an escalating rate

in national individual investment asset, with 23%,

24% and 25% in 2009, 2010 and 2011 respectively.

On account of that, I suggest that this is the problem

truly causing the current Chinese property bubbles.”

As to the Chinese HNWI distribution, more than

30,000 of them are evident in cities like Beijing,

Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Guangdong,

where the house prices are highest in China.

China』s stock market was in downturn the last 2 years.

Rumors about collapse of stock market are in the air.

Xie Tian said that the stock market was a place

where those bigwigs lined their pockets.

Columnist in Financial Times, Ye Tan regards

China』s stock market as a sucking machine.

According to WIND in 2010, of the 340+ new stocks

listed, the average IPO generated 2.4 billionaires.

In contrast, less than 20% of the Chinese investors

made a profit, with more than 70% being at a loss.

Why do Chinese investors keep investing in it?

Xie Tian: “According to both overseas investors

and other investment institutions,

China has 10-15% inflation rate. With such a rate,

Chinese people resort to savings by all means.

They then come to the stock market and invest,

only to gradually realize that their investments

end up in the pockets of CCP』s privileged clans.”

Xie Tian said that whether it is the property bubbles

or stock market, the real problem had nothing to do

with the high savings rate, but with the CCP clans.

NTD reporters Li Jing and Xiao Yu