【禁聞】中國通脹3年來最高 專家憂硬著陸

【新唐人2011年6月16日訊】中國5月份居民消費價格指數上漲5.5%，為近3年來的最高水平，這個指數超過5%，就是嚴重通貨膨脹。大陸的中央銀行6月14號再次上調銀行存款準備金率，試圖遏制通脹持續上升，繼續放緩經濟增長。而世界頂級專家學者擔憂，中國經濟面臨「硬著陸」的風險。

北京國家統計局公布，5月份居民消費價格指數CPI同比上漲5.5%，食品價格上漲11.7%，其中生豬價格上漲高達40%﹔消費品價格上漲6.2%。

國家發改委宏觀經濟學會秘書長王建認為，通脹率還遠未達到最高位，災害性氣候的影響、成本的推動，預計通脹率在今年四季度的時候會更高，其中食品是主要推動力。

《美聯社》援引退休小學教師馬傳藝的話說，他的退休金每年只增加100多塊錢，負擔不起食品價格的上漲，他發現價格較低的食品價格漲得最厲害，貧窮的人受影響最大。

北京當局希望把今年的年通脹率控制在4%以內，以避免物價飛漲造成社會動盪。國家發改委價格監測中心處長徐連仲指出，通脹率超過5%是政府和居民都難以忍受的。

而北京政府的統計數據常常受到外界的質疑。中國社科院學部委員張卓元表示，預計今年全年通脹率在5%左右，6月份可能突破6%。

上海復旦大學財務金融系教授孔愛國認為，控制通脹的兩個方向，除了貨幣政策，控制民生消費物資「生產源頭」價格最關鍵。他非常憂慮，政府可能管錯了方向。

他指出，應管上游原料供應價格，而非中、下游的民營企業生產價格。像國內油氣壟斷行業，卻讓油價跟著國際原油價格走是「荒唐的事情」。

孔教授預測央行將再加息，但他同時指出，以緊縮貨幣政策抗通膨，對中小企業來說是雪上加霜。如果政府不扶持民營企業生產，導致失業率升高，會有社會問題。

而北京天則經濟研究所理事長茅於軾認為，保持負利息率對付通脹是不正常的一種做法。

茅於軾(北京天則經濟研究所理事長):「對付通脹最有效的工具，就是提高利息率。現在我們的利息率一直還是負的，這是非常不利於通脹的，而且非常不利於當前這個房地產泡沫。沒有一個國家為了對付通貨膨脹，而保持負利息率。這顯然是非常不正常的一種做法。」

大陸央行14號上調銀行存款準備金率0.5個百分點。這是央行今年第6次上調，也是去年以來第12次上調。中國信貸發放量今年5月同比大幅回落。

茅於軾：「央行採取不動利息率，而動準備金，這兩種不同的方案它有同樣的效果，就是減少貨幣的供給，但是這樣的成本是不一樣的。這種政策是為了偏向於政府的利益、偏向於國有大企業的利益。中國的金融市場非常糟糕。」

剛剛從中國考察歸來的美國託列多大學亞洲研究所主任張欣教授說，隨著信貸緊縮，中國企業，尤其是中小企業獲得信貸的難度正在增加，很多企業的資金鏈都斷掉了。

渣打銀行中國研究部主管王志浩(Stephen Green)說，“中國經濟發展的驅動力就是借貸。貸款一旦減少，經濟增長就會減速。製造業採購經理人指數PMI疲軟就是證明。”

瑞銀集團的中國經濟師王濤在研究報告中指出，“電力短缺、企業削減庫存等來自實體經濟的信號顯示，中國經濟的隱憂正在從過熱向「硬著陸」轉移。”

投資大亨索羅斯(George Soros)14號表示，“中國已經錯失抑制通脹的良機，可能面臨經濟「硬著陸」的風險。中國當前的經濟增長模式正逐漸喪失動能，有跡象顯示，中國經濟「正在失控」。”

剛剛結束訪華的美國著名經濟學家魯比尼(Nouriel Roubini)指出，“目前中國的固定資產投資佔國內生產總值已近50%，出現大量的產能過剩現象，說明政府「靠投資促經濟」的政策出現了嚴重問題。”

魯比尼教授警告，“中國如果不降低固定資產投資和儲蓄、增加消費，2013年以後經濟出現「硬著陸」的可能性非常大。”

新唐人記者梁欣、李元翰、黎安安採訪報導。

“Hard Landing” For China』s Economy?

In May, consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5.5%,

reaching the highest in 3 years in China,

and surpassing the 5% mark for serious inflation.

The Central Bank increased reserve ratio in June

to control inflation and economic growth.

Experts worry China』s economic “hard landing.”

In May, China』s CPI increased by 5.5%

and food price increased by 11.7%, with pork

price rising by 40%, and consumer goods 6.2%.

Economist Wang Jian predicts inflation to rise

further with climatic disasters and rising cost.

Inflation will be higher in the last quarter,

especially in food price.

AP quoted retired teacher Ma Chuanyi for saying

his retirement increases by RMB100 annually,

far below the increase of food price.

Fast rising food price affects the poor the most.

Beijing authorities hope to control inflation

to 4% in order to stabilize the society.

Xu Lianzhong from Price Monitoring Center

said the inflation rate of 5% will be unbearable.

stistics from Beijing are questioned.

Zhang Zhuoyuan from Social Sciences Academy

said inflation rate is 5% now, and may rise to 6%.

Prof. Kong Aiguo from Fudan University said

to slow inflation, the key is to adjust price policy

and control the prices of production material.

He worries authorities may steer incorrectly.

Kong refers to price control of raw material

in the upper part of the production chain.

For the monopolized oil and gas, he said

it is absurd to follow global petroleum prices.

Kong predicts the Central Bank to up interest rate,

saying the tight monetary policy will hurt

small businesses, exacerbating unemployment.

Mao Yushi from Tianze Econmic Institute said

cut interest rate is not the way to slow inflation.

Mao Yushi: “To raise interest rate is the most

effective way to slow inflation.

Now interest rate is negative, it』s not good

for controlling inflation and real estate bubble.

No country uses negative interest rate

to slow inflation – this is a wrong approach.”

Central Bank raised deposit reserve ratio by 0.5%,

This is the 6th rise this year, 12th since last year.

Credit loan amount is reduced sharply this May.

Mao Yushi: “The Central Bank does not rise

interest rate, but only deposits reserve ratio.

Both approaches would reduce cash provision,

but the cost is not the same.

The current policy is good for government

and large businesses, bad for financial market.”

Professor Zhang Xin from Toledo University

just retuned to US from a China visit. He said

as loan reduces, medium and small businesses

face more difficulties, their cash flow is cut off.

Stephen Green from Standard Chartered Bank

said loan is the driver for China』s economy.

Loan reduction means economic slow down.

The low PMI confirms this.

Chinese economist from UBS AG said

electricity shortage and reduced stock rate

indicate China』s economy moves to hard landing.

Esteemed investor George Soros said China

has missed its opportunity to stem inflation,

and may risk hard landing;

China』s economy shows signs of losing control.

Nouriel Roubini, a noted American economist,

said China invests close to 50% of GDP

in fixed asset, and has production over-capacity.

Investment-lead growth policy faces trouble.

Roubini warns the risk of hard landing after 2013

if China does not reduce fixed-asset investment.

NTD reporters Liang Xin , Li Yuanhan and Li Anan