【禁聞】經濟專家：全大陸地方債達69萬億

【新唐人2011年7月13日訊】國際債評機構「穆迪公司」最近發表報告，質疑中國實際公共債務。一位中國國務院的經濟專家向本臺記者透露，全中國的地方政府債務實際高達69萬億人民幣。有經濟專家指出，地方政府已經無力償還這些龐大的債務。

近期，日本《外交學者》雜誌網站發表了美國「卡內基國際和平基金會」高級研究員裴敏欣的文章：「中國嘀嗒作響的債務炸彈」其中的部分內容。

文章說，如果我們還記得席捲美國和西歐的經濟危機的起因，其中最重要的一點就是「貸款潮」，也就是，「過度借貸」加劇了「房地產泡沫」，和不可持續的消費。中國似乎已經出現了同樣的問題，但只有一個主要的不同，就是：中國的大量債務出現在「基礎設施行業」，而不是「消費」領域。這就是「中國特殊論」。

據中國審計署最近透露，中國各級地方政府的債務高達10萬億元人民幣。審計調查顯示，截至去年底，全國除54個縣級政府沒有政府債務外，省、市、縣三級地方政府債務餘額超過10萬億元，其中60%是政府負有償還責任的債務。

而據香港「渣打銀行」亞洲區高級經濟師劉健恆估計，中國地方政府的債務纍計高達15萬億人民幣，單是每年償還的利息已達8800億人民幣，佔去年收入21%，負擔頗為沉重。

而中國國務院的一位資深經濟專家，在接受《新唐人》採訪時表示，目前全中國的地方債務遠遠超過10萬億。

國務院經濟專家：「國家統計局統計出的那個『地方債』，只是國家發文批准發行的地方債，有證據的這個地方債，是10.7萬億，但是，根據各個地方他們自行發行的債務，達到69萬億這是全國的。」

他進一步透露69萬億是如何統計出來的。

國務院經濟專家：「是按照銀行的統計，通過國家的四大銀行，像工行、建行、農行、交通銀行，我們按照這個四大銀行統計數據，然後上報給人民銀行，根據人民銀行的統計數據出來的就是69萬億。」

隨著地方政府債務曝光，北京無法再向外界隱瞞公共債務風險問題。

7月6號，由中共總理溫家寶主持的國務院常務會議，指出了多年形成的地方政府性債務規模存在的風險隱患。儘管中共當局列舉出幾條措施，要求做出整改工作，但是許多分析並不看好。

美國時政財經評論專家草庵居士表示：中共當局在處理這些問題上已經錯過了良機。

草庵居士（美國時政財經評論專家）：「因為現在是地方政府已經到無法償還債務的情況，所以在這時就引起整個政府的管制危機，如果地方政府不償還債務的話，民眾就會暴發反抗，因為投資到這些錢就會收不回來。可是中央政府要是管的話，這筆債務又是龐大的債務，可能就相當於中國一年GDP。所以在這時候，中國（共）政府也沒有這麼多財政收入去償還。」

草庵居士認為，中國（共）政府能夠解決的辦法，無非就是通過清還地方債務來借貸，最後由中央銀行來承擔責任，再通過「發行鈔票、通貨膨脹」來稀釋減輕地方的負債。

不過，草庵居士憂心的表示，中國地方債務已經成為一個非常大的炸彈，隨時可能會引爆中國經濟的崩潰。

Local Debts Reach RMB 69 Trillion

Moody』s, an international debt rating agency,

recently questioned China's actual public debt.

An economist at China』s State Council told NTD that

China's local government debts were RMB 69 trillion.

Economists pointed out that China』s local governments

are unable to pay such huge debts.

Japanese magazine The Diplomat recently published

an article by Pei Meixin, a senior fellow at Carnegie

Endowment for International Peace Foundation.

It is titled "China's Ticking Debt Bomb."

The article said, the most important cause of the economic

crisis in the U.S. and Western Europe, is the "credit boom."

"Excessive borrowing" exacerbated the "real estate bubble"

and an unsustainable consumption.

China seems to be having the same problem, with one difference.

That is, China has large debts in "infrastructure industries,"

rather than in "consumption.” This is "Chinese exceptionalism.”

A survey by Audit Authority shows that by the end of 2010,

in China, except for 54 counties, the debt balance of provincial,

municipal and county governments was over RMB 10 trillion,

60% of which the central government is responsible to repay.

Kelvin Lau, Asia senior economist at Standard Chartered

estimated that China's local governments had accumulated

RMB 15 trillion in debt. The annual interest payment

alone was RMB 880 billion, accounting for 21% of

last year』s local revenues. The burden is quite heavy.

However, a senior economist of China's State Council,

told NTD that the actual figure was far more than

RMB 10 trillion.

State Council』s economist:

The local debt statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics

are only the part that the state government had approved.

Such local debts with state approvals were already 10.7 trillion.

The debts that local governments issued on their own

were about RMB 69 trillion.

State Council economist: “We calculated the number

based on statistics obtained from four main banks: Industrial

and Commercial Bank, Construction Bank, Agriculture Bank,

and Communications Bank. We then reported all stats to

the central bank, the People』s Bank of China.

It came out to be RMB 69 trillion.

Since the local government debts were revealed,

Beijing can no longer conceal the risk of its public debt.

On a State Council Standing Committee meeting on July 6

Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out the risks of local debts.

Although the CCP listed a few measures to amend it,

many analysts are not optimistic.

Economic and financial commentator Caoan Jushi said,

the CCP has missed the chance to deal with such issues.

Caoan Jushi: As the local governments are unable to repay

their debts, a management crisis will be triggered.

If local governments do not repay their debts,

the people will protest, as they lose their investments.

If, however, the central government takes over the debts,

it will be enormous, equivalent to China』s annual GDP.

The CCP does not have enough money to repay, either.

Caoan: The only way that the CCP can solve this issue is

to pay local debts through credits, and eventually,

the central bank will take over. To reduce the debt value,

the bank in turn will issue more money to cause inflation.

However, he worries that China』s local debts have become

a very large time bomb, which may explode at any time,

causing the collapse China』s economy.

NTD reporters Liang Xin, Lin Huixin and Wang Mingyu