【禁聞】“豬肉”拉動CPI飛漲的背後

【新唐人2011年7月13日訊】中國6月份居民消費價格指數(CPI)上漲6.4%，創36個月新高，其中以豬肉價格上漲57.1%最多。高昂的肉價引起社會的轟動，甚至白領都表示生活艱難。學者表示，中國經濟正在「硬著陸！」

中共統計局公布的最新資料顯示，6月中國居民消費價格指數CPI同比上漲6.4%，在食品類的肉禽及製品中，以豬肉價格上漲最多，豬肉價格上漲57.1%，佔CPI漲幅的21.4%。

美國南卡羅萊納大學教授謝田表示，大陸的豬肉價格上漲，只是中國通貨膨脹繼續惡化的表現。而中國百姓對豬肉價格上漲敏感，與家庭購買食物的支出比重有關，顯示中國家庭用在食物的支出偏重。

謝田（美國南卡羅萊納大學教授）：“中國老百姓對豬肉價格敏感，正好說明中國還是一個『窮國』。購買食物的支出，在西方國家，比如美國只有收入的百分之幾到百分之十。而中國作為一個發展中國家，跟其他窮國一樣，一般人食物方面的支出高達40%到50%。這麼高的支出花在食物上，老百姓對食物價格上漲非常敏感。”

據中國統計局的資料顯示，構成CPI的8大類商品和服務價格也全數上漲，「非食品」因素逐漸成為推高CPI 的重要力量。

謝田教授還表示，中共計算的物價上漲指數（CPI）是有水分的，如果把與百姓生活重要相關的資料，如住房等加上，CPI會更高。但中共為了減少對社會的影響，採用了「逐漸提高CPI」的做法。不過，謝田說，即使按中共公布的資料，中國的通膨也是非常嚴重的，這說明中共遏制通膨的舉措完全失敗。

謝田教授：“早在半年前，許多香港、海外研究中國股市的人們、研究經濟的人們發現，實際上中國通貨膨脹遠遠不止當時中國政府公布的4—5%，而是高達15%，甚至更高。”

《德國之聲》日前一篇《中國高通脹令人擔憂 》文章寫到，中國物價正在以出人意料的速度上漲，以致政府都開始擔心社會失穩。但另一方面，大陸央行卻不能過快的使經濟降溫，否則“硬著陸”帶來的風險難以估量。自去年10月以來，大陸央行已經連續五次提高主導利率，連續9次提高銀行準備金率，以減少貨幣流通量。留給央行的調控空間已然不多了。

還有學者對中國經濟分析後，感到更為悲觀！

美國著名的經濟金融分析師西林發表報告說，因為中國大陸的貨幣不受限制的巨量供給，和銀行毫無節制的巨量貸出款項，所以目前中國大陸總體國債數量，已經到達或者超過了十四萬億美元，折合人民幣是九十多萬億。以十四億人口計算，人均是六萬多塊錢的國債。西林還認為，人們的購買力低，富人的熱錢大量的外流，房地產泡沫已經破裂，中國經濟正在走向「硬著陸」。

而食品價格高對社會穩定也可能造成潛在影響。一名新浪微博的用戶總結了公眾的情緒，說：在一個工業和經濟迅速增長的國家，為甚麼一個普通人吃飯就這麼難？

新唐人記者周玉林、宋風、薛莉採訪報導。

Chinese Pork Increases CPI

In June, China』s consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.4%,

the highest in the past 36 months, with pork price up by 57.1%.

The high price of meat has caused an uproar.

Many white-collar workers find it difficult to make ends meet.

Scholars say China's economy is undergoing a "hard landing."

Chinese Bureau of Statistics released the latest data

showing that in June, China's CPI rose 6.4% since a year ago.

Pork prices rose 57.1%, the highest among food products,

and pork accounts for 21.4% of the CPI increase.

Professor Xie Tian in University of South Carolina says that

the increase of pork prices indicates an accelerating inflation.

The Chinese are sensitive to the increase of pork prices,

because food takes up a great proportion of household spending.

Xie: "Chinese people』s sensitivity towards pork prices

shows that China is still a poor country.

In Western countries such as the United States,

food expenditure takes up less than 10% of the income,

while in China it takes up as much as 40% to 50%.

Such a high expenditure makes people sensitive to food prices."

According to China』s Bureau of Statistics, prices of eight

categories of products that constitute CPI also rose.

Non-food factors have become major causes of CPI increase.

Professor Xie also said that the Chinese Communist Party

(CCP) manipulated the calculation of China』s CPI.

If housing and other important factors of daily life are added,

CPI would be even higher. To reduce its social impact,

however, CCP resorted to “gradually increasing the CPI.”

Even so, Xie said, the CCP』s report indicates serious inflation.

It shows that CCP has completely failed to control inflation.

Professor Xie Tian:

As early as six months ago, many foreign scholars of Chinese

economy found that China』s inflation was higher than the 4-5%

announced by Chinese government, and was as high as 15%.”

An article titled "China's Disturbing Inflation" from Deutsche

Welle writes that prices in China are increasing unexpectedly.

The government begins to worry about social instability.

China』s Central Bank fails to cool down the economy.

Risks of "hard landing" are incalculable.

Since October 2010, the Central Bank has increased interest

rates five times, and increased bank reserve ratio 9 times.

There is not much room left for the Central Bank to control.

Some scholars are more pessimistic about China's economy.

A U.S. economic and financial analyst says that

China has a massive amount of unrestricted money supply,

and banks lend out large amounts of money without restraints.

So the current amount of national debt in China has reached

USD 14 trillion, equal to RMB 90 trillion.

It is a debt of RMB 60,000 per capita.

He also believes that people's purchasing power is low,

while the wealthy people』s hot money flows out.

The real estate bubble has burst, and

the Chinese economy is moving towards a "hard landing."

The high food prices may pose threats to social stability.

A user of Sina』s micro-blog sums up the public mood, asking,

“With a rapidly growing industry and national economy,

why is it so hard for an ordinary person to eat?”

NTD reporters Zhou Yulin, Song Feng and Xue Li