【禁聞】鐵道部負債破兩萬億 恐成壞賬

【新唐人2011年8月4日訊】大陸鐵道部最近公布了一份財務報告，數據顯示：截止到今年（2011年）上半年，鐵道部所屬企業總負債已突破2萬億元人民幣。在「7?23」特大動車追尾事故暴露出中國鐵路安全問題之後，鐵道部的財務狀況也越發引起人們的憂慮。專家指出，鐵道部揹負巨額債務，自身還債能力弱，有可能出現銀行壞賬，最終全民買單。

這份《鐵道部2011年上半年主要財務及經營數據報告》刊登在「上海清算所」的網站上，由鐵道部財務司製作完成。報告說，中國鐵路企業總負債在今年（2011年）上半年已經首次超過2萬億元，負債率接近六成，達58.53%。

報告還顯示，鐵道部所屬運輸企業上半年營業總收入為3525.5億元，盈利42.9億元。但大陸《財新網》援引知名投資界人士貝樂斯（Barrons）的分析，鐵道部上半年的利潤並沒有扣除鐵路部門徵收的鐵路建設基金。據貝樂斯推算，上半年的稅後鐵路建設基金至少有300億元，如果扣除這一項，鐵道部上半年實際上至少虧損250億元。

7月23號，甬溫線發生特大動車追尾事故之後，當局在事發後僅數小時就宣佈停止搜救，忙於搶修線路、恢復通車，激發了極大民憤。

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院謝田教授在接受《新唐人》採訪時分析指出，當局的這一做法也反映出鐵道部財務狀況不好。

謝田教授：「我覺得這件事情，從另外一個角度看呢，也體現了鐵道部急於賺錢、還債的壓力比較大。所以（有）急於還錢、急於賺錢這樣一個心態，這個心態驅使之下，為了錢、為了盈利不顧人命，不顧人們的安全。」

近年來，鐵道部大搞鐵路「大躍進」，尤其是自2008年金融危機之後，當局將大批資金投入高鐵建設，鐵道部的資產負債迅速增加。而鐵道部的貪腐更是讓人怵目驚心，僅鐵道部前副總工程師張曙光一人，就涉及貪污28億美元巨款。

《華爾街日報》中文版報導，渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)經濟學家王志浩(Stephen Green)認為，動車事故引發了人們對鐵道部管理方式的質疑，可能要過很長一段時間鐵道部才能重新回到債市，他懷疑鐵道部的業務是否能產生足夠多的自由現金流，以償還借款利息。

謝田教授也指出，因為事故，當局被迫把高鐵的運營速度降低，這又加劇了來自航空、公路的競爭，而且這個事故讓很多人越來越認識到大陸高鐵不安全。

謝田教授：「我覺得這個還是會對鐵道運營產生負面的影響，當然同時又會衝擊到鐵道部這麼大範圍的、這麼大規模的投資和還債問題。」

據貝樂斯測算，鐵道部今年（2011年）需要還本付息至少2500億元，而它的經營現金流大約為2000億元，存在多達500億元的虧空。

王志浩和其他分析師則懷疑，大陸財政部可能會在特定情況下對鐵道部進行政府注資、來插手干預。

謝田教授：「它（鐵道部）能不能償還這個利息，這個是人關注的問題。如果不能償還的話，這些國企的債務變成爛帳、變成爛債以後，最後還是由國庫來充裝的話，實際上，就成為負擔轉嫁到老百姓頭上。」

大陸知名財經評論人吳知逢在博客文章《鐵道部欠的2萬億怎麼還？ 》中談到，兩年前，鐵道部總負債才1.3萬億，債務總額急劇膨脹是因為高鐵「大躍進」，而現在，高鐵盈利遙遙無期，很難想像這筆債務該怎麼還。

他指出，也許，最後買單的是你、我、他。

新唐人記者劉惠、李謙、王明宇採訪報導。

Two Trillion in Bad Loans?

The latest Railways Ministry』s financial report stated that

the Ministry is over two trillion yuan (US$310 billion),

in debt by the middle of 2011.

The July 23 high-speed-train crash exposed not only safety

issues in the Ministry, but also its financial position.

With a massive debt and their inability to repay it,

the Railways Ministry is prone to incur bad loans,

which affects all the Chinese citizens.

The Railways Ministry Financial and Business Data Report

for the First Half of 2011 was published

on the website of the Shanghai Clearing House.

It was written by

the Finance Department of the Railways Ministry.

It suggests that China』s railways were over two trillion yuan

(US$310 billion) in debt by the middle of 2011,

a debt rate of about 58.53%.

It also stated that the gross revenue of the Railways Ministry,

in H1 2011, is 352.55 billion yuan (US$54.79 billion)

with a profit of 4.29 billion yuan (US$667 million).

China』s Caixin Net quoted an investment analyst Barrons

that the Railways Ministry』s revenue in H1 2011

included the levied Railways Construction Fund,

which he thinks is at least 30 billion yuan (US$4.66 billion).

If it is deducted from the total revenue, the Ministry』s

loss would be at least 25 billion (US$3.89 billion) in H1.

On July 23, a few hours after the high-speed train crash,

authorities ordered the search and rescue efforts to end.

Instead, they put the emphasis on getting the trains back

in operation, which only infuriated the public.

Dr. Xie Tian, from the University of South Carolina』s

Aiken School of Business, told NTD that

such behavior shows that the Railways Ministry

is very worried about its poor financial position.

Xie Tian: “It is a sign that the Railways Ministry is in a hurry

to repay its debt.

With such a concern, the Ministry was driven to pursue

financial profits while ignoring people』s safety and lives.”

The Railways Ministry has been rushing into railway projects,

mainly since the 2008 financial crisis.

As the authorities heavily invested in the railway construction,

the Ministry』s liabilities soared.

The corruption within the Ministry is shocking,

with ex-engineer, Zhang Shuguang, alone

embezzling 2.8 billion yuan (US$435 million).

The Standard Chartered economist, Stephen Green,

said in the Chinese version of Wall Street Journal,

that the high-speed train crash focused public attention

on the management of the Railways Ministry.

He thought it could take a long time before the railways

returns to the bond market.

He doubts if the Railways Ministry

has enough free cash flow to pay its debt interest.

Dr. Xie Tian also said that due to the recent train crash,

the authorities ordered the train』s speed to be slowed down.

This only spurs on stiffer competition

among the railways, airlines and highways.

People are more concerned now about the

safety of Chinese railways, than ever before.”

Xie Tian: “The crash not only produced a negative impact

on the Railways Ministry, but also brought to light

issues related to investments and debt repayment.

Barrons suggests that the Railways Ministry has to pay at least

250 billion yuan (US$38.84), inclusive of the interest in 2011.

With the estimated cash flow of about 200 billion yuan,

(US$31 billion), the Ministry lost 50 billion yuan this year.

Stephen Green and other analysts say that the Finance Ministry

could intervene by injecting capital into the Railways Ministry.

Xie Tian: “People are concerned about whether the Ministry

can repay its debt in full.

If not, the debt turns into bad loans,

which in turn falls on the shoulders of the National Treasury,

and ultimately onto the Chinese people.

Chinese economic critic, Wu Zhifeng, said in a blog article

“How Can the Railways Ministry Repay Its Two Trillion Debt?”

the Railways Ministry』s debt, two years ago,

was 130 million yuan (US$20.2 million) and climbing,

due to the number of railway projects that were carried out.

It is hard to imagine how they can deal with this huge debt.

He said, “The one who pays in the end, could be all of us.”

NTD reporters Liu Hui, Li Qian and Wang Mingyu