【禁聞】通脹創新高 貧困加劇 溫家寶降調門

【新唐人2011年8月11日訊】中國通貨膨脹7月份繼續攀升，創下了3年多來的新高，食品價格飛漲仍然是通脹高升的主要推動力，不斷加劇貧富分化和數億貧困人口的生存危機。外界分析指出，北京當局在繼續緊縮貨幣政策，與阻止國內經濟形勢進一步惡化之間，陷入了嚴重的兩難困境。

8月9號，北京國家統計局公布，7月份全國居民消費價格指數(CPI)同比上漲6.5%，創下37個月以來新高，城市上漲6.2%，農村上漲7.1%﹔其中，食品價格上漲14.8%，糧食價格上漲12.4%，豬肉價格上漲56.7%。

加州大學聖地亞哥分校的中國經濟教授貝裡．諾敦指出，中國通脹雖然持續上升，但最近幾個月的升幅明顯下降。他和海內外一些分析師預計，中國通脹可能會在今年晚些時候出現拐點回落。

但是，另有許多經濟專家認為，北京當局的通脹數據並不可信。

北京天則經濟研究所專家：「因為我們國家一般來說它報6.5%的話，實際上應該更高。現在也沒有說物價有下降的甚麼其他消息，就是一些因素，我們有一些物價繼續上揚的因素還是有的，比如說，我們到年底社會保障房要開工1000萬套。」

據中國肉類協會統計，中國是世界上最大的豬肉生產和消費國，一般家庭購買豬肉佔肉類總購買量的60%。豬肉價格飆漲讓民眾怨聲載道。

瀋晗耀(上海華頓經濟研究院院長、教授)：「農產品可能因為飼料的價格，還有人工的價格，現在持續在上漲，這個不可能回去了，肯定再想像以前一樣吃廉價菜、廉價肉、廉價魚，這些都是不可能的了。」

通脹讓普通老百姓的財富嚴重縮水。《南方都市報》8月2號發表文章質問，為何「170多道文件」未能扭轉「通脹猛於虎」的現狀？

徐彥(杭州市人大代表獨立參選人)：「很多飯店不做豬肉的菜了，因為成本漲得太厲害。第二方面是，可能去年開始CPI高漲以後，一般所謂最低收入的能夠直接感受到物價上漲。但是今年以後，中產階級能夠意識到這個問題，包括很多企業家。」

7月份農村的通脹比城市水平更為嚴重。

溫家寶6月訪問倫敦時表示，要將通脹控制在4%以內有困難，但控制在5%以下可能做到。而在8月8號的國務院常務會議上，溫家寶沒有再提把穩定物價作為「首要任務」，只表示要「努力把物價漲幅降下來」。

花旗集團大中華區首席經濟學家瀋明高表示，通脹形勢嚴峻原本會促使央行出臺進一步緊縮政策。但目前恰逢歐美日經濟前景高度不確定，業內人士因此預計，中國或延緩出臺加息等舉措。

近日，《人民日報》海外版發表了央行貨幣政策委員夏斌的文章，公開支持中國徹底告別負利率。分析人士指出，這可能是央行進一步加息的暗示。

國務院發展研究中心金融研究所副所長巴曙松表示，一方面，加息有利於抑制通脹；同時，加息只是矯正負利率，縮小和市場融資利率差距的政策動作，對實體經濟的衝擊有限。

摩根大通中國區全球市場業務主席李晶在研究報告中說，中國決策層目前面臨兩難，一方面需要側重偏緊的貨幣政策以遏制通脹，另一方面也需應對中小企業貸款難的現象進一步蔓延。

吳惠林(台灣中華經濟研究院研究員)：「所以我們最近看到中小企業出現了一片倒閉潮，在生產方面是受到蠻大的影響，企業的經營，人民的生活當然也會往下降，所以這會進一步衍生出嚴重的社會問題。」

旅美民主人士魏京生發表文章指出，改革經濟的前提是改變政治，專制政治決定了市場競爭的關鍵因素不是科技和管理，而是關係和腐敗。必須改變一黨專制的政治，中國才有出路。

新唐人記者周玉林、李元翰採訪報導。

Inflation Hits a New High,

China's inflation climbed to a record high in July

and hit a new, 3-year high.

Food prices increased and are still the main driver

behind the current inflation, which further widens the gap

between the rich and poor and brings into question

the survival of hundreds of millions of poor people.

Western analysts point out that while Beijing continues to

tighten its monetary policy

to prevent further deterioration of the domestic economy,

it has experienced a snag.

On August 9, Beijing National Bureau of Statistics announced that

July's consumer price index (CPI) for the country rose 6.5%

year-over-year, to a record high over the course of 37 months.

Beijing』s CPI rose 6.2%, with the countryside』s CPI rising 7.1%.

Food prices rose 14.8%, grain rose 12.4%,

and pork rose 56.7%.

Barry Naughton, professor of Chinese Economics at

the University of California at San Diego,

pointed out that although inflation continued to rise in China,

its rate of growth decreased significantly in recent months.

He and some analysts expect inflation to decline later this year.

However, some analysts do not think Beijing』s data is credible.

Beijing Unirule Institute of Economics Experts said:

“In our country, the actual number is higher than the reported 6.5%.

We don』t expect that prices will drop.

There are factors that show that some prices will continue to rise.

For example, we will start at the end of 2011 to

build 10 million social security housing units.

According to the China Meat Association』s (CMA) statistics,

China is the world's largest pork producer and consumer of

pork in the world,

with the average family pork purchase

accounting for 60% of the family』s total meat purchase.

Soaring pork price have caused serious complaints in China.

Professor Shen Hanyao, Director of Shanghai-based

Warton Economic Institute, said:

"Agricultural products continue to rise,

probably due to price increases in feeds and labor.

These prices will not retreat and it is impossible to have cheap

food, meat or fish like we had in the past."

Inflation seriously shrunk people』s assets.

Southern Metropolis Daily』s article on August 2 questioned why

over 170 laws failed to resolve the serious inflation problem.

Xu Yan, Hangzhou City independent candidate for the

National People』s Congress:

"A lot of restaurants do not sell pork dishes,

because pork costs too much.

When the CPI increased last year,

low-income people felt the impact head-on.

This year, middle-class people are also experiencing this problem,

including many businessmen," reported Radio Free Asia (RFA).

When Wen Jiabao visited London in June, he said that it is

hard to keep inflation at 4% or less, but 5% can be achieved.

At the State Council Standing Committee meeting on August 8,

Wen did not mention price stability as a "priority" task.

He only talked about working harder to keep prices down."

Citigroup』s chief economist for Greater China, Shen Minggao:

“The grim inflation should have prompted China』s central

bank to issue policies to further tighten the economy.

But with the uncertain economic outlook of Europe, the U.S.,

and Japan, China might delay increasing interest rates.”

Recently, People's Daily published an article by

People』s Bank Monetary Policy Committee member, Xia Bin.

The article supports China farewell to negative interest rates.

Analysts pointed out that this can be a hint that

the People』s Bank will raise interest rates further.

Ba Shusong, deputy director of the Institute of Finance of the

State Council Development Research Center:

“On one hand, interest rate increases help curb inflation.

At the same time, it is a correction of a negative interest rate,

reducing the interest gap with market money gathering. So it has a limited impact on the economy.”

JP Morgan Chase』s Chair of global markets of China, Li Jing,

said in a research report:

“China』s decision makers face a dilemma. On one hand,

they need to tighten the monetary policy to curb inflation;

on the other hand, they need to address the difficulty that

small and mid-size businesses have in getting loans.

Wu Huilin, a researcher at the Taiwan's

Chunghwa Institution of Economic Research:

"So we see lots of small and mid-size enterprises close,

thus, our lives are seriously impacted.

This will further cause serious social problems."

US-based democracy activist, Wei Jingsheng, published

an article stating that “The basis of economic reform is political reform.

The authoritarian system caused market competition based on

relationships and corruption, not technology and management.

China must change the one-party dictatorship to get a way out.”

NTD reporters Zhou Yulin and Li Yuanhan