【禁聞】學者分析中國GDP與盛世標準

【新唐人2011年9月15日訊】中共上週公布了國家統計局關於去年GDP的初步核實公告，內容說：2010年國內生產總值現價總量，比初步覈算數增加3219億元，按不變價格計算的增長速度為10.4%。在歐美經濟普遍陷入低靡的情況下，似乎中國的經濟一枝獨秀，不過有多位專家學者提出質疑，認為單靠GDP和經濟發展無法量度一個國家是否已經達到盛世。

《法國國際廣播電臺》9月12號發表《學者指中國GDP只及1949年 難言盛世》的文章，引用經濟學家胡星斗的數據說，在康乾時期，中國的GDP佔世界的32%；到鴉片戰爭時期，中國的GDP至少佔世界的20%；到清朝末年，比率降到11%；到1949年時，比率再跌到6%；文革時達到谷底的2%，現時的GDP只恢復佔世界的5%、6%，所以即使從GDP看，也並非取得很大成就。

雖然有學者對胡星斗的數據提出不同見解，但他提出，不應該單以GDP和經濟來衡量中國是否達到盛世，則受到普遍的贊同。

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院謝田教授指出，GDP的概念是美國政府商業部設計的，他們在設計當初就警告說，GDP的數字不應該做為一個國家經濟健康度量，因為它沒有包括很多其他重要因素。

謝田教授：“比方說你國防開支，自然資源，人口數量啊，其實都不是強國的標誌。那麼它們都有弱點和局限。中共的統治集團用GDP的數字，你說是愚弄民眾也好，做戲也好，用來展示它的經濟。實際上在中國這個（GDP）作用已經被誇大了。”

《新唐人》特約評論專家傑森表示，中國過去30年的GDP增長，是以其他因素惡化為代價的。

傑森：“中國GDP呢，在過去30年是在持續的發展，但是這個發展的結果呢，是社會嚴重的貧富兩極分化，是整個社會大的生存環境的持續惡化，包括自然環境﹔和社會道德人倫的持續惡化。”

目前美國面臨就業危機，歐巴馬總統12號剛剛公布4470億美元就業方案，試圖幫助提振美國經濟；而歐元區也深陷債務危機，13號，巴西財政部長曼泰尼亞（Guido Mantegna）表示，金磚國家將討論援助歐盟國家的可能性。作為金磚四國之一的中國，因此受到部分歐美學者的期待。

傑森分析，中國社會內部，其實並不像歐美國家表面上看到的那樣樂觀。由於制度問題，中國社會發展的受益者是少數有權階層，普通大眾的生活並沒有反映出如GDP速度那樣的增長。

傑森：“一個典型的例子就是，最近物價稍微漲了一下，很多老百姓就已經開始吃不上肉了，甚至稍微蔬菜漲一漲，連蔬菜都成問題了。所以就是說呢，單純從GDP來看，它只是能讓國際上一些對中國不了解的人覺得中國興旺發達。但是你要走入中國社會你會發現，這是一個畸形發展的社會。”

傑森指出，目前中國的GDP仍然呈現增長，主要有兩個原因。一是中共控制國家一切；二是依靠鎮壓，嚴格保持中國擁有一個赤貧階層，這樣相對在國際上保持廉價勞動力的優勢，但這兩點既制約了中國經濟的發展，又積纍了社會的不公，使得中國社會如同坐在火山口一般。

在此之前，英國《金融時報》的文章提出：「看一個國家是否是盛世，只要看那個國家所害怕的敵人或對手的特徵。」

謝田教授：“因為一個真正強大的國家呢，它不會害怕很弱小的威脅。《金融時報》這篇文章他說，你看共產黨的軍隊它不打自招，特務在攻擊海外法輪功的網站，它害怕一群手無寸鐵，打不還手的人群，而這個人群在任何國家，任何社會都不會構成威脅力量。”

而《法廣》的報導說，法學家高全喜認為，盛世應該有一個文明的指標，應以社會的道德精神狀況作為衡量的關鍵。而憲政學者張博樹指出，按建設一個民主社會的觀點，盛世應是指這個國家經濟有發展、公民權利有保障、公民生活健康，簡單而言，就是國泰民安。

新唐人記者梁欣、尚燕、柏妮採訪報導。

***********************

Chinese GDP true or false

The CCP released a preliminary verification announcement

last week on last year』s GDP, it indicates: 2010 GDP has

increased by 321.9 billion Yuan compared to initial counting.

This is based on constant price calculation; the growth rate is

10.4%. The Chinese economy seems to be thriving while the

European and American economies are experiencing a

financial slowdown. However, many experts believe that

GDP and economic growth alone cannot measure whether a

country is achieving prosperity.

Radio France International published an article "Experts

Point out China』s GDP and 1949 cannot be called the

Golden Age" citing economist Hu Xingdou』s data, in Kangxi

period, China』s GDP accounted for 32% of that of the world』s.

During the opium war period, China』s GDP accounted for at

least 20%, approaching the end of the Qing Dynasty, it

dropped to 11%. When the People』s Republic of China was

established in 1949, it dropped to only 6%. It reached the

bottom during the Cultural Revolution to a mere 2%. The

current GDP has only risen to 5~6%, therefore, looking at the

GDP, the CCP has not accomplished much.

Though there are researchers with different opinions to Hu

Xingdou』s data, many agreed with his opinion that the GDP

and economy alone cannot measure whether China is in a

golden age. University of South Carolina Aiken School of

Business Professor Xie Tian pointed out that, GDP is a

concept designed by the US Department of Commerce.

While designing it, they warned that the GDP numbers are

not a healthy measure of a nation』s economy, because it left

out many other important factors.

Professor Xie Tian: for example, your defense spending,

natural resource, population, they do not represent a sign of

power. They all have weakness and limitation. The GDP

numbers used by the ruling party (CCP), you can call it

fooling the public, or putting on a show, using it to show of

its economy. Actually, the effect of China』s GDP is already

exaggerated.

NTDTV special commentator Jason said, China』s GDP growth

in the past 30 years is at the cost of other factors deteriorating.

Jason: China』s GDP, increased for the past 30 years,

however this development caused the increasing gap

between the rich and poor. It caused a worsening of living

conditions, including the environment and people』s moral

standards.

America is facing an employment crisis. On the 12th,

President Obama announced a $447 billion jobs plan, as an

effort to boost the American economy. The Euro zone is also

facing a debt crisis. On the 13th, Brazil Finance Minister

Guido Mantegna said, the BRIC countries will discuss the

possibility of EU aid. As one of the 4 BRIC countries, China

has expectations from some European and American

researchers.

Jason analyzed, inside China, it does not look as optimistic

as it appears to the outside world. Due to policy, the social

development in China only benefits the class of people in

power. Rapid GDP growth doesn』t reflect the same growth in

the public』s quality of life.

Jason: a typical example, the slight increase in inflation

resulted in many people unable to purchase meat. Now,

even vegetables have become too expansive to eat. Thus,

GDP numbers provide an image of a rapid growing China

to people who really don』t know what』s going on in China.

But once you walk into China you will realize it is an

unbalanced society.

Jason points out, there are 2 reasons as to why China』s GDP

is increasing. Firstly the CCP controls everything

that』s going on in the country; secondly it keeps a poverty

class by force, to maintain the competitive advantage of

having cheap labor. However, it not only restricts China』s

economic growth, it also accumulates unfairness in society,

as if sitting on top of a volcano.

The Financial Times writes in an article: to determine

whether a country is prospering, you only need to look at the

characteristics of its enemy that the country is afraid of.

Professor Xie Tian: "a truly powerful country does not need to fear

the threat from the weak group.

The Financial Times said in its article, simply look at the CCP』s army,

they deploy spies to attack the Falun Gong websites abroad.

it means they are even afraid of a group of unarmed peaceful people.

This group of people poses no threat to the powers in any country or society."

The RFI reported, Jurist Gao Quanxi believes, prosperity

accounts for civilization, it should measures society』s moral level and

spiritual conditions. Constitutional scholar

Zhang Boshu pointed out, to built a democratic society,

a flourishing economy should develop security, civil rights and health.

Put it simple is that the peace and prosperity of the country.

NTDTV Liang Xin, Shang Yan and Bo Ni.