【禁聞】專家解析美參議院匯率議案

【新唐人2011年10月6日訊】美國國會參議院星期一（10月3日）晚上投票通過了「2011年貨幣匯率監管改革法草案」，降低了因匯率問題懲罰中國的門檻，這個議案是否會損害中國老百姓的利益？業界人士及經濟專家對此進行了分析。

根據議案，如果發現某國貨幣匯率「失調」，美國可以在90天內對這個國家徵收懲罰性關稅，相比現行法律要求提供被懲罰國存在故意操縱匯率的證據，這一法案降低了懲罰的門檻。另外，單個行業也可以向美國商務部提出正式申請，要求對競爭對手的產品徵收懲罰性關稅。

美國南卡羅萊納大學艾肯商學院的謝田教授分析，如果這一議案成為法律，將使中共通過壓低匯率造成的低商品價格恢復到正常的競爭價格，降低對美國企業和就業的衝擊，因此會受到美國朝野的歡迎。但是，這一議案是否會損害中國老百姓的利益呢？

謝田教授：「它沒有損害中國老百姓的利益。如果沒有操縱貨幣的政策，和強制截流外匯的政策的話呢，實際上中國那些出口商啊，中國那些百姓啊，製造業的工人呢，本來早就應該從這個出口中獲益了、受益了。但是他們獲得的利益實際上沒有得到，實際上是被中共當權、特權階層給拿走了。」

大陸企業顧問何軍櫵認為，美國政府奉行市場經濟原則，保護本國國民和企業利益的行為是正當的。同時他指出，中共壓低人民幣匯率並沒有真正讓中國民眾獲得經濟利益。

何軍櫵：「這個出口增長所帶來的國民財富並沒有實際轉化到人民的手上，反而使中國政府擁有了更多的外匯，通過這個外匯來購買美國等西方發達國家的債券，以及各種金融產品。通過這種金融輸血的方式來維持了西方自由國家的一個相當高的生活水準。中華人民共和國政府在這一點上是做的及其不道德的。」

中共外交部週二發表聲明指出，美國參議院通過的這一議案違背世界貿易組織(World Trade Organization)規則。

謝田教授：「這個說法也站不住腳。中國當年在進入世界貿易組織WTO的時候，作出明確的承諾，按WTO降低關稅，不操縱貨幣，自由貿易等等的，按這個做法來做。那現在實際上是中國首先違反了WTO和世界貿易組織的協定。國際社會如果要求中共糾正它的錯誤做法的話，完全是符合這個國際慣例和國際準則的。”

何軍櫵表示，中共人為壓低人民幣匯率違反了世貿規則，以此帶來的經濟增長模式是不能長久的。

何軍櫵：「怎麼可能長久啊？首先你違反了世貿規則，同時我們國內的老百姓，我們的購買力是非常之低的，我們的工資佔國民GDP的總值的比重，也是全世界非常低的國家。由於購買力不足，那麼只有通過基礎建設投資，以及以出口導向為增長的這兩架馬車來拉動GDP，來保持較快的經濟增長，但是這樣一個模式是不可能長久的。 。」

參議院就「2011貨幣匯率監管改革法草案」投票時，美國財政部國際事務次長佈雷納德到訪北京，重申人民幣匯率問題。謝田教授表示，這次美國給出明確的信息，中共應該停止操縱貨幣，讓人民幣自由升值，讓財富回到老百姓手中。

新唐人記者白梅、尚燕、朱娣採訪報導。

Expert Analysis on U.S. Senate's Exchange Rate Oversight Act

Anchor: On the evening of Monday October 3rd, U.S. senators voted to pass the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011 which favored tough tariffs on the artificially depressed Chinese currency. Would this legislation impose any harm to the Chinese populace? Both industry sector and economic experts share their views.

News: According to the Act, the administration must impose duties on currency manipulators after 90 days of failure to adopt appropriate policies. In comparison to the current law requirement for deliberate manipulation, this new Act has lowered the penalty threshold. Meanwhile, the U.S.Dept. of Commerce can require an investigation into undervaluation by a government.

Assistant Professor of Marketing at University of South Carolina Aiken, Dr. Xie Tian analyzed that once this bill becomes the law, it will drive the CCP to restore the current low commodity prices to normal competitive prices, and reduce the stress on the US industry and employment. Therefore, it will be welcomed by the general public and the government. However, is it going to hurt the general interest of the Chinese?

Professor Xie Tian: "It would not hurt the general public』s interest in China. Without the manipulation of currency and export policy, in fact, the Chinese exporters, the general public, and the production line personnel, would have made profit and benefited from export. The reason why they have not been able to really obtain their benefits was because they have been deprived by the authority and the privileged.

Business consultant Mr. He Jun Jiao believed the legitimacy of the U.S. government to follow market and economic principles and to protect the public and business interests. He also pointed out that the depressed RMB exchange rate created by the CCP does not truly benefit the Chinese.

Mr. He Jun Jiao: "The wealth caused by export growth has not actually reached the hands of the general public. Instead, it only brought more foreign exchange reserves for the Chinese government to purchase more bonds and a variety of financial products from the U.S. and other developed western countries. Through this financial transfusion, it helped to maintain a high living standard in these free western countries. What the Chinese government does is rather immoral."

The Chinese Foreign Minister issued a statement on Tuesday that this Senate Bill gravely violates WTO rules.

Professor Xie Tian: "This statement will not hold. When China first entered the WTO, it clearly promised to reduce tariffs, not to manipulate the currency and to promote free trade. In fact, China has been violating the WTO agreement. It is entirely in line with international practice and standards to request the correction of the erroneous practice of the CCP."

He Jun Jiao indicated that the CCP has been violating WTO rules to artificially depress the Chinese currency. This type of economic growth will not last long.

Mr. He Jun Jiao: "How could it last? First of all, you have violated the WTO rules. Meanwhile the domestic purchasing power is very low. Our total wage share of national GDP is one of those relatively poor ones in the world. Due to lack of purchasing power, the GDP has been driven by two main carriages, that is, investment on infrastructure construction, and increasing export. That』s how economic growth has been relatively rapid. However, this model is not likely to last long."

The Senate vote coincides with a trip to Beijing by Treasury Under Secretary Lael Brainard who reinstates the undervalued Chinese currency. Dr. Xie Tian indicated that this is a clear message from America that the CCP should quit manipulating the currency, let the RMB appreciate freely, and return wealth to its people.

NTD reporters Bai Mei, Shang Yan and Zhu Di.