【禁聞】專家:中國製造業萎縮 滯脹前兆

【新唐人2011年11月25日訊】中國的製造業正在萎縮，根據香港匯豐銀行「採購經理指數」(purchasing managers'index)數字顯示，中國製造業11月降到32個月來最低點，出口訂單一項也出現下滑，中國製造業明顯步入萎縮。專家分析指出，製造業是中國的支柱產業，一旦萎縮，對整體經濟是致命性的警告。

「採購經理指數」是國際通行的衡量宏觀經濟的指標。

匯豐銀行11月23號公布11月中國製造業採購經理人指數預覽，數據從上個月的51降到了48，這是自從2009年3月以來最低的一個數字。顯示中國製造業步入萎縮的區間。

「製造業採購經理指數」主要是通過訂單、生產、就業、庫存，以及物流等分項指標，來反映製造業活動。指數高於50%表明製造業總體擴張，反之則意味著收縮。

美國紐約城市大學經濟學教授陳志飛接受《新唐人》專訪談到，中國製造業去年還在蓬勃向上，出口增加，今年出口已經連續三個月呈現下降趨勢，製造業惡化的速度非常快。陳志飛認為，中國的經濟在硬著陸。

美國紐約城市大學經濟學教授 陳志飛:「製造業的萎縮，對於一個國家來說是致命的，因為它是一個支柱產業。那麼講到中國這麼一個依靠製造業為主的所謂世界工廠，它竟然跌到了48%，這的確是拉響了警報，而且最讓經濟學家擔心的是，這個預示著中國經濟會硬著陸，如果是硬著陸，不是緩慢的下降，你是突然下降墜地，那就是整個機毀人亡，會造成很大的災難。」

陳志飛教授分析了造成中國製造業萎縮的幾點原因。

美國紐約城市大學經濟學教授 陳志飛:「歐債危機造成整個歐洲對外的需求減少。歐美的減少是造成中國製造業客觀上生存的危機。內部的話，主要是中國整個的基礎建設項目、中國的銀行借貸現在都收緊，造成需求減弱；樓市現在已經開始崩潰，所以使得需求各方面減少。」

陳志飛教授還指出，中國高通貨膨脹的環境還在進行，另外，隨著人民幣有可能對美元走跌， 中共當局可能採取放寬貨幣政策，將進一步削弱國內的需求，造成製造業的萎縮。他估計，中國經濟現在正處於滯脹的前沿。

美國紐約城市大學經濟學教授 陳志飛:「今年雖然世界銀行還在估計中國的發展速度，從去年的10%降到今年的9.5%左右，但是在兩三年內可能會降到6%甚至以下。通貨膨脹如果恢復到6%甚至7%的水平的時候，我覺得是一個完全的一個滯脹的形勢，那麼將是中國經濟崩潰的一個明顯的信號。」

倫敦宏觀經濟研究機構「凱投宏觀」在23號發出的分析信函中也表示，價格方面的數據顯示，通脹已經成為一個迅速削減中國經濟發展的威脅，而比預期更糟的「中國製造業採購經理指數」數字表明，中共當局不久前暗示的“微調整”可能已經不足以避免經濟下滑。

新唐人記者周玉林、周平、薛莉採訪報導。

Experts say shrinkage China』s Manufacturing Shrinkage Foretells the Coming of Stagflation

China』s manufacturing is shrinking now.

According to the latest Purchasing Managers』 Index (PMI)

announced by HSBC, China』s manufacturing activities fell to its lowest point in 32 months.

Specifically, export orders appeared to be decreasing as well,

which is an apparent signal for the shrinkage.

Experts pointed out that the manufacturing sector is the pillar

industry of China, thus its shrinkage is a critical alarm to the whole country』s economy.

The Purchasing Managers』 Index (PMI) is a globally-used

indicator of macroeconomics.

On Nov 23, HSBC announced a preview of

China』s November PMI.

The index appeared to fall from last month』s 51 to 48,

which is its lowest point since March in 2009.

What』s more, 48 is already in the interval indicating shrinking

manufacturing.

PMI is a composite indicator reflecting manufacturing activity,

which is calculated by several indicators for new orders, production, employment, stocks and logistics.

A number over 50 indicates a growing manufacturing activity,

otherwise a declining one.

Economics professor at The City College of New York,

Chen Zhifei, told NTDTV that

China』s manufacturing was still growing last year with

increasing exports;

however, in the recent three months, export orders continuously

dropped and the manufacturing quickly turned to a shrinking trend,

which made him believe that China is undertaking an

economic hard landing.

(Economics professor at The City College of New York,

Chen Zhifei) ”The shrinkage of manufacturing is critical because it』s usually a pillar industry of the country.

Especially for China, who is known as a “global factory” which

largely relies on manufacturing, a PMI of 48 is really a critical alarm to its economy.

What worries economists most is that such a dramatic change

in PMI suggests an economic hard landing of China』s economy.

If it』s a hard landing, not a soft one, then the craft of China』s

economy will suffer a fatal crash which would be a terrible catastrophe.”

Prof. Chen made an analysis on possible reasons inducing

the shrinkage of China』s manufacturing.

(Economics professor at The City College of New York,

Chen Zhifei): “Internationally, the European debt crisis has reduced those countries』 demands from oversea markets.

Such reduction is an objective threat to China』s manufacturing

companies.

Domestically, infrastructure projects and bank loans are both

contracting in whole; the real estate market also starts to collapse.

Everything mentioned here has reduced the total demands on

the manufacturing industry.”

Prof. Chen also mentioned that China』s inflation

is still very high; on the other hand, as Yuan might decrease against dollar,

the CCP might loosen its currency policy which would

further weaken domestic demands and shrink manufacturing activity.

He speculated that China』s economy is currently at the edge of

stagflation.

(Economics professor at The City College of New York,

Chen Zhifei): “Though The World Bank still estimates a 9.5% annual growth rate of China』s economy this year,

this number could drop to below 6% in two or three years.

If the inflation rate recovers to 6% or 7% at that time,

in my opinion, such situation turns out to be a complete

stagflation, which would be a clear signal for the collapse of China』s economy.”

The London-based macro-economic research consultancy,

Capital Economics, wrote in an analyzing letter on Nov 23rd that,

the price data shows that inflation has become a huge threat

in impairing China』s economic growth; the worse than expected PMI also indicates that,

the “fine adjustment” recently suggested by the CCP

might not be enough to prevent China』s economy from falling into shrinkage.

NTDTV reporters Zhou Yulin, Zhou Ping and Xue Li