【禁聞】美國雜誌預測2012中國發生大動盪

【新唐人2011年12月17日訊】美國期刊《外交政策》最近預測2012年的世界大事件，其中預測中國將發生大的政治動盪。《日本時報》也撰文說，中共目前面臨類似1989年的挑戰。評論者認為2012年的中國，隨時可能發生大的變動，房地產和土地所有權問題可能是一個引爆點。

美國雜誌《外交政策》在「展望來年」文章中說，從動車事故到空氣污染，中國公眾對政府的批評已經直言不諱。加之中共政府派別之間的公開爭鬥，社交媒體的信息傳播，中共的新一任領導人將面對更容易被激怒的公眾，更加難以維持中央集權和控制局面。

《日本時報》也撰文說，目前中共領導人面臨類似1989年的危機，比如民眾要求自由、政府腐敗問題、裙帶關係，以及中共統治的合法性等。同時，中共還面臨環境問題，社會安全問題以及醫療問題，這些都是1989年事件中沒有面臨的新因素。

而中國民眾追求人權自由的渴望，和中共強權之間的碰撞在持續加劇。北京的註冊會計師杜延林表示，自己也在思考2012年的中國會不會發生甚麼變動。但是他覺得中國的事情很難預測。

杜延林：「因為我們面對的一個獨裁體制，有很多不確定因素，也許一夜之間，像房地產市場一樣，他一直在增長，一直在增長，突然在一夜之間，可能就崩盤了。當然我希望這種變動，這種變革能少帶來一些損失，少帶來一些社會震盪。」

旅居德國的社會學家王容芬博士認為，民眾和政府的碰撞，除了表現在中共構築防火牆和網絡翻牆之間的拉鋸戰之外，共產黨利益集團霸佔土地所有權的行為，將導致民眾爆發反抗。

王容芬：「中國土地所有權是歸國家的，國家是歸他黨的，執政黨的，黨又是歸他這掌權的幾個人的。所以這是極不合理的。而這涉及到每一個人的具體利益。你買了房子只有七十年，或者四十年，五十年的使用權，將來你又到哪兒去？最後中國出大亂子要從房地產上，這是一個根本的所有權問題。」

世界媒體注意到，曾經是共產主義國家的俄羅斯，最近在全國60個城市出現了抗議普京的群眾示威遊行，莫斯科的遊行更多達3萬人。但是《世界日報》社論認為，在現有的民主體制之下，俄羅斯不會發生「天安門事件」，普京也不會成為鄧小平。

杜延林指出，中國和俄羅斯的區別是，極權政治和威權政治的區別。俄羅斯的體制還是民主政體，雖然有個人威權，但是大的環境是不允許他一意孤行的。普京是不敢把坦克車派上莫斯科街頭的。但是中共是一個極權或者後極權的體制，所以它甚麼事都可能幹的出來。

《東方日報》評論指出，中國古語說，「人民為水，水能載舟，也能覆舟」，一旦這股洪流發動起來，有哪艘大船能夠安然無恙？再怎樣維穩，都是螳臂當車。中國年初的「茉莉花革命」已為中國政治動盪做了初步綵排。問題只是明年這把火由誰點燃，在何處燃點，動亂之後中國將向何處去？

新唐人記者秦雪、郭敬採訪報導。

US Journal Predicts Unrest in China in 2012

The US journal Foreign Policy recently predicted several

World events in 2012, including political unrest in China.

Echoing these predictions, The Japan Times said that the

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is facing similar challenges as those in 1989.

Critics believe upheavals may happen any time in 2012

in China, possibly triggered by real estate and land ownership issues.

The US journal Foreign Policy wrote in an article named

“Next Year, in Review”

about the outspoken criticism of the Chinese regime,

on issues from train wrecks to smog.

With more overt campaigns between factions in the Chinese

regime, and the spread of social media,

China's new leaders should expect to have a more fractious

constituency and a tougher time maintaining central control of the world's emerging superpower.

The Japan Times also wrote that the current crisis faced by

CCP leaders is similar to that of 1989,

such as freedom of press, corruption and nepotism,

and the legality of CCP.

Meanwhile, the CCP is also facing environmental issues,

as well as social security and medical problems, which were not involved in 1989.

The conflict between Chinese people』s press for human rights

and the CCP』s power is escalating.

A certificated public accountant in Beijing,

Du Yanlin, said that

he is thinking about the possible changes in China in 2012,

but reflects that things in China are hard to predict.

Du Yanlin said: “What we face is a dictatorial power,

which has many uncertain factors.

It might keep growing like the real estate market,

but collapse suddenly.

But I hope future changes can bring less loss and

less social unrest.”

A sociologist residing in Germany, Dr Wang Rongfen,

believed that the conflict between people and the government,

is reflected in the seesaw battle between the CCP's

firewall project and netizens』 breaking blockades.

The CCP interest groups』 land grabbing will finally trigger

people』s revolt.

Wang Rongfen said: “In China, land is owned by the country,

which is owned by CCP, while CCP is controlled by only several persons.

It is very unreasonable, but involves everyone』s vital interests.

If you buy a house with the right of use for only 70 years

or 40/50 years, then where are you going after that?

China's future unrest will start from real estate,

which involves a basic ownership issue.”

Media around the world have noticed the recent mass protest

against Putin in 60 cities in Russia, a once communist country, with around 30,000 protesters in Moscow.

But the World Journal believed that considering the

current democratic system,

another Tiananmen Incident will not happen in Russia,

nor will Putin become a second Deng Xiaoping.

Du Yanlin pointed out that China and Russia are different

since one is totalitarian while the other is authoritarian.

Despite the personal authority, the Russian system is still democratic,

and Putin cannot decide everything in a large scale.

Putin will not dare to dispatch tanks on Moscow streets.

But the CCP is totalitarian and thus will dare do anything.

The Dongfang Daily highlighted the old Chinese saying;

“people are like water, which can float boats, but can also make them sink.”

Once the huge wave comes, which vessel can hold it?

Trying to maintain stability is just useless.

The “Jasmine Revolution”, which happened in China at the

beginning of this year was a rehearsal for the real play.

The only question is who, and where, will the fire next year be lit,

and what will China』s future be after the unrest?

NTD reporters Qin Xue and Guo Jing