【禁聞】18大敏感年 陸警力難應付動盪局面

【新唐人2012年2月8日訊】2012年中國面臨經濟增長放緩、通貨膨脹高升、群體性抗議和社會動盪蔓延等問題，中共為了保證今年下半年的十八大領導班子換屆順利，在全國各地都加強了警戒。國際媒體指出，中共當局一些最新的舉措，暴露出了儘管全國警力不斷擴充，仍然難以應付動盪局面。

英國《金融時報》 報導，儘管中共持續施行高壓手段，讓公安部門措手不及的群體性事件卻一再發生。近期在四川藏區，警方開槍打死了多名藏族抗議者。西藏自治區強化了警方戒嚴措施，而新疆自治區上週宣佈新招收8000名警察。

儘管中共維穩開支急劇增長，並已超過了國防預算，但用於各地維穩的警力仍不夠使用。過去30年裡，當局公布的犯罪率和抗爭事件的增長遠快於公安隊伍的增長。1978年全國有68萬名警務人員，2003年僅增長到86.3萬名。但在過去10年，全國警察人數猛增。

廣東省人文學會副會長信力建最近發表文章指出，從1993年到2003年，全國群體性事件由1萬起增加到6萬起，參與民眾由73萬增加到307萬。從2003年到05年，全國共發生群體性事件20萬起，參與民眾高達1000多萬。2010年，全國發生的抗議和騷亂事件猛增到18萬起。

「中國民主黨」全委會美東執委張健表示，中共越是高壓維穩，社會反而越不穩。

張健：「在去年我們知道中國產生的大小維權抗暴事件一共高達26萬起，中國的維穩經費已經創造了歷史的最高水平，而且也遭受到海內外輿論的一致譴責。我相信隨著中國民間和官方的矛盾日益加劇對立產生的激化，你最多的軍隊也可能難以去維穩。」

據中共媒體報導，去年全國警察人數約為200萬名，平均每10萬人中有150名警察，仍比聯合國2005年公布的世界平均數少一半。

中共總書記胡錦濤去年提出了「創新社會管理」的口號，要求治安人員和地方官員通過在社區更積極的早期調解、在基層開展更有力的信息收集，來預防衝突的發生。

北京維權律師莫少平表示，中國官民矛盾最根本的原因是一黨專制、黨大於法。

莫少平：「群體性事件從宏觀上來講是各種的公民合法權益受到侵害：公民財產這方面，例如拆遷補償、土地被佔用、房屋被補償等等﹔然後司法不公方面﹔還有一些公民的政治權力方面，比如選舉的這方面，也有一些突發性的事件﹔再有就是民族矛盾這方面。從大的矛盾它還表現在於貧富差距比較大，就是說基尼係數越來越大。」

根據聯合國數據，2011年中國的基尼係數突破0.55，成為世界上貧富差距最大的國家之一。基尼係數超過0.4是貧富兩極分化引起社會動盪的警戒線。

《金融時報》指出，中共維穩警力受到地區差距和制度缺陷的嚴重困擾。全國各地共有70多萬名武警，在西藏和新疆部署的武警部隊數量巨大，但仍不夠使用。而上海2008年的人均執法支出是新疆的兩倍。

中共治安機構還有另一個致命弱點：由於正規警察不夠使用，作為補充的其他治安系統更為龐大，包括活動隱蔽、主要負責監控異見人士的國安系統、負責街道秩序的城管系統，這些城管因毆打小攤販而臭名昭著。

外媒報導指出，中共很大一部分治安工作是由非正規隊伍在執行，還包括遍佈基層的黨團政工組織，他們沒有受過甚麼法律培訓，同時也在加劇官民矛盾對立。隨著十八大臨近，中共越來越難以應付日益增長的群體性抗議和社會動盪。

新唐人記者劉惠、李元翰、蕭宇採訪報導。

CCP Short Of Police for Mass Protests

China faces slow economic growth, soaring inflation,

mass protest outbreaks and spread of social unrest in 2012.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) stepped up

its vigilance across China.

At the incoming 18th congress, the current political

leadership will hand over its power.

Foreign media point out, CCP's recent moves indicate its

growing police force isn't enough to deal with social unrests.

Under CCP's high-handed repressions, China's unexpected

mass protests continue to grow, Financial Times reported.

CCP police recently killed several Tibetan protesters

in Sichuan.

The martial law was officially strengthened

in the Tibet Autonomous Region.

Last week in Xinjiang, the local CCP authorities declared

to recruit 8,000 extra policemen.

The CCP's internal security spending keeps growing,

exceeding the defense budget.

However, the police force for maintaining stability

across China still see shortage.

Over the past 30 years, official data shows figures of crime

and mass protests grow much faster than that of police force.

In 1978, China had 0.68 million policemen,

in 2003, the figure is over 0.86 million.

Still yet, over the past 10 years,

the police force numbers shot up in China.

Xin Lijian, Vice President of Guangdong Humanities Society,

recently listed figures of China's mass protests in an article.

In 1993-2003, the figure peaked at 60,000, from 10,000.

Participants reached 3.07 million from 0.73 million.

In 2003-2005, a total of 0.2 million mass protests occurred.

Over 10 million people joined protests.

In 2010 alone, China's mass protest cases

went up to 0.18 million.

Zhang Jian, US-East executive committee member

of Democracy Party of China, reviews the issue.

The harsher the CCP's maintenance of stability gets,

the more unstable the society becomes, says Zhang.

Zhang Jian: “As far as we know China's mass protests

rose to 0.26 million in 2011.

China's internal security spending hit a historical new record.

This has incited public criticism both in China and abroad.

As frictions between civil society and the regime intensify,

no amount of army will be enough to safeguard stability.”

The CCP official media said that the police force in 2011

was about 2 million.

That is an average of 150 policemen per 0.10 million people.

The figure is less than half of the world average figure the UN announced in 2005.

CCP President Hu Jintao put forward a slogan

of "innovative social management" in 2011.

Hu required the security personnel and localized officials

to prevent outbreak of mass protests.

Hu offered means like more active communities mediations

and more effective grass-root information-gathering.

Beijing-based rights lawyer, Mo Shaoping,

analyzes China's officials-civilians clash.

The essential reason of it is the one-party dictatorship,

and the CCP standing above the law.

Mo Shaoping: "In terms of macro-economy, mass protest

refers to the infringement of various civic legitimate rights:

- on civic properties, like demolition & eviction compensation,

occupation of farmlands, house compensation, etc.;

- on judicial injustice; - on conflicts between ethnic groups;

- on citizens' political rights, i.e. elections, unexpected events.

A large clash also shows up as the gap widens between

rich and poor, i.e. the Gini coefficient is getting bigger."

UN』s data shows that China's Gini coefficient exceeded 0.55

in 2011, as one of the nations with the highest wealth gap.

Gini coefficient of 0.4 is the warning level, indicating

a potential social unrest due to wealth polarization.

Financial Times revealed, CCP's police force for stability

security is harried by regional gaps and system flaws.

Over 70 million armed policemen are located across China.

In Tibet and Xinjiang alone, the number of armed police

is huge, but it is still not enough.

Yet in 2008, Shanghai's per-capita spending

on law enforcement was twice that for Xinjiang.

The CCP security system has another serious weakness:

Regular police aren't enough, so its complementary security system is much larger.

The complementary system includes state security police,

secretly monitoring dissidents, and chengguan (the city urban management agency.)

The chengguan are notorious

for assaulting small street vendors.

According to the foreign media, a great part of CCP's

public security forces are non-formal teams.

These teams even include CCP political work organs

at a grass-root level.

Media claim, having had little training of the law,

these grass roots teams are intensifying civic-official frictions.

As its18th congress nears, the CCP faces increasing

difficulties to tackle ongoing mass protests and social unrests.

NTD reporters Liu Hui, Li Yuanhan and Xiao Yu