【禁聞】薄熙來想「謀反」 勝算有多大？

【新唐人2012年2月20日訊】重慶市副市長王立軍闖入成都美領館之後，有傳聞說，重慶市黨委書記薄熙來指派重慶市市長黃奇帆，率領70輛警車包括裝甲車，越界包圍領館，這被認為是一次極其嚴重的「謀反」行動。而在此之後，薄熙來公開在雲南參觀一個由他父親薄一波創建的第14集團軍﹔另外海外媒體日前報導，重慶空軍有異常舉動。那麼，如果有軍隊支持，薄熙來是否會謀反？又有多大的勝算，請看一下報導。

薄熙來的死黨王立軍出逃美領館，一行攜帶武器的警察和武警從300公里外的重慶趕到四川成都，被認為這是一個重大的謀反行動。而薄熙來之後又若無其事的參觀雲南部隊的軍史陳列室，則顯得極不尋常。

對此，英國《金融時報》認為：「合理的程序是薄熙來應該被召到北京，解釋成都發生的事件，但是他卻訪問他父親薄一波帶過的雲南第14集團軍。我們還沒有看到中央政府發出的已經控制住了局面的強烈信號，這非常反常，也有些讓人不安。」

中共治國方略之一就是對軍隊與地方「分而治之」，防止地方諸侯兼管軍隊「造反」。但薄熙來卻率先打破慣例，在去年11月胡錦濤去夏威夷參加APEC峰會時，邀請成都軍區國家國防動員委員會，在重慶舉行所謂「第六實兵演練」，大搞軍事演習，同時還邀請了國防部長梁光烈，成都軍區司令員李世明等軍頭。

中國歷史學專家李元華認為，中共高層爭權的核心是爭軍權，而且中共最高官一直是把持軍權，從地方爬到中央也是想攫取軍權。

中國歷史學者李元華：「實際上中共它一直是害怕軍隊出問題的，所以它一屆上來的話，它都是拉攏軍隊方面的人，而給軍隊一些好的福利。它就覺得軍隊都支持他心裡才安全，因為它們本來就是靠軍隊奪權的。」

李元華認為，薄熙來表明有軍隊支持，是在向高層討價還價，威脅對方，不要輕易動武。而中共高層想扳倒薄熙來，就是因為他犯了地方諸侯的大忌。

中國歷史學者李元華：「地方勢力不管多大，它不可以軍事演習。因為中共的軍事演習，實際上都是顯示最高統治者對軍隊控制權力的一種能力的像徵。如果一個地方諸侯去做這種舉動的話，對它來講就是一種僭越行為，那麼它肯定會惱火的，肯定會找時機秋後算帳的。」

不過，王立軍事件已經將中共內部矛盾和鬥爭推向國際。最近有兩名美國官員透露，王立軍向美國方面提供了中共高層腐敗的材料，其中涉及政治局常委周永康，還有薄熙來這些強硬派如何想整垮中共國家副主席習近平，不讓他順利接班。

時政評論專家章天亮認為，王立軍案才剛剛開始。

時政評論家章天亮：「王立軍還有一個很重要的殺手鐧，這個消息已經在美國人手中了。薄熙來問題絕不是貪腐的問題，而是一個造反。他所掌握的證據真正能夠向國安也好、或者胡錦濤啊，或者中紀委講的是薄熙來這個謀反的問題，而不是一個經濟問題。」

章天亮指出，薄熙來對當地的武警有絕對的控制權，可以調動很多武警﹔而胡錦濤要調動「一個連」都需要和兩個軍委副主席商量，所以目前中共中央對薄熙來也感到棘手。

不過，儘管如此，海外輿論幾乎一邊倒的預見了薄熙來即將「玩完」。

新唐人記者劉惠、宋風、王明宇採訪報導。

How Much Leverage Does Bo Xilai, Communist Party (CCP)

Secretary of Chongqing, Have For His Possible Rebellion?

Chongqing’s Vice Mayor Wang Lijun unexpectedly visited

the US consulate in Chengdu.

Sources said the diplomatic unit was under a military siege

ordered by Bo Xilai, CCP Secretary of Chongqing.

Bo ordered Chongqing mayor Huang Qifan to take 70 police

cars including armored vehicles to besiege the US consulate.

The trans-border operation was viewed as serious “rebellion”.

After that, Bo Xilai openly visited the 14th Group Army in

Yunnan, which was set up by his father, Bo Yibo.

The latest overseas news reported the unusual move from

Air Force based in Chongqing.

So, will Bo rebel if he were supported by the army?

As Bo’s diehard buddy Wang Lijun fled to US consulate in

Chengdu, armed police rushed there from Chongqing.

Bo’s act was seen as major rebellion.

Yet afterwards Bo met the army in Yunnan.

He acted as if nothing had happened, which is highly unusual.

UK’s Financial Times reviewed, "A reasonable procedure

should have called Bo to Beijing to explain the incident.

Rather, Bo paid a visit to the 14th Group Army that had

followed his father, Bo Yibo.

No obvious signal has been given by (CCP) central authorities

controlling the situation. Extremely unusual and disconcerting."

Separating armies and local authorities is CCP’s strategy to

prevent regional leadership controlling armies for rebellion.

Bo Xilai became the first to break the rule in Nov. 2011 when

Hu Jintao was attending the APEC summit in Hawaii.

Bo held “6th military exercise" in Chongqing. The guest list

included Liang Guanglie, CCP Defense Minister, Li Shiming,

Chengdu Military Region Commander. Also the National

Defense Mobilization Committee of Chengdu Military Region.

Chinese history expert Li Yuanhua thinks army power grab

is the core of infighting among CCP’s top leadership.

CCP’s top head is traditionally the army chief. CCP officials

seeking promotion are also in pursuit of army power, Li feels.

Li Yuanhua: "Actually the CCP always fears the army going

astray.

So every new generation of its leadership hooked in the

army, offering troops some welfare benefits.

Only gaining army support makes leadership feel secure.

The regime seized the state power by relying on troops."

Bo signals that he has military support, making horse trading

with the CCP top leadership, Li Yuanhua analyzes.

So Bo coerces the opponent: Don’t easily use force.

Why do the CCP top-level want to bring down Bo?

Because Bo violates CCP’s taboo on its regional officials.

Li Yuanhua: "No matter how powerful a local force is,

he cannot hold any military exercise.

All CCP’s military exercises are displays of its top leader's

military control, a symbol, in fact.

But if a regional leader does the same, that’s overstepping the

power line in the view of the CCP top level.

It will certainly be annoying, and the leadership will look for

opportunities for retaliation."

In reality, the Wang Lijun incident has pushed CCP's

infighting out to the world.

Lately, two U.S. officials said that Wang Lijun handed over

files about CCP top-level corruptions.

Some implicate Zhou Yongkang, one of CCP Politburo

Standing Committee member.

There is also evidence linking Bo’s forces plotting to topple

the upcoming succession of Xi Jinping, CCP Vice President.

Political Critic Zhang Tianliang thinks the Wang Lijun case

has just begun.

Zhang Tianliang (Political Critic): "Wang Lijun has another

important trump card, which has been handed to the U.S.

Bo’s trouble is not only limited to corruption, but a rebellion.

The evidence Wang will disclose to CCP’s national security

or Hu Jintao, is actually Bo’s rebellion, not of the economy."

Zhang Tianliang notes that Bo Xilai has absolute control over

local armed police.

By contrast, Hu Jintao has to consult with two vice chairmen

of Central Military Committee to deploy “an army company”.

So the CCP central committee feels Bo Xilai is being

troublesome.

In spite of this, the overseas media overwhelmingly predicted

that Bo Xilai' s power trip is about to end.

NTD reporters Liu Hui, Song Feng and Wang Mingyu