【禁聞】學者：中國要改革 得從政府開始

【新唐人2012年3月28日訊】中共總理溫家寶在今年「兩會」的記者招待會上說，隨著經濟的發展，中國又產生了「分配不公、誠信缺失、貪污腐敗」等問題。一時之間，「改革」這個名詞開始在各大媒體爭相出現，有學者指出，中共政府權力對市場的干預持續惡化，腐敗蔓延不止，經濟和社會矛盾幾乎到了近乎臨界點，要想改變經濟必須先改變這個社會的權力來源。

財經專欄作家廖仕明表示，任何一個經濟體都有三個發動機，第一個發動機就是出口，第二個叫做內需，第三個就是政府公共投資。中國是一個以出口為導向的國家，對外出口佔中國經濟增長很大部分，在2008年國際經濟不景氣之後，整個國際對中國的產品需求開始減弱，中共政府近年來開始強調要提升內需。

財經專欄作家廖仕明：「那個貨幣發行量非常龐大，這個時候它必然導致通貨膨脹，我們看到從2010年、2011年到2012年現在，中國在社會上看到的經濟情況，一個最表面的現象就是甚麼東西都漲價。」

在經濟減速、國內物價上揚，以及國際市場波動的背景下，中國高居不下的通貨膨脹，付出代價的實際上是中國老百姓財富的大幅度縮水。

經濟學家簡天倫博士：「中國經濟改革以來，一直都是保持共產黨不倒的前提，做的任何改變，從雙軌制、農業轉工業、出口、投資、股票上市、房地產等等，這一切都是使一部分人富裕起來，誰富裕起來？就是共產黨的頭，還有他們的子孫富裕起來。比方說出口，它是以低估匯率來出口，所以，當時，80年代開始，共產黨官員的兒子、孫子都跑到出口部門去了，賺了一大筆。」

廖仕明表示，現在的中國是一個權貴資本主義，也就是有權的人和有錢的人，結合成一個緊密的利益共同體，目前中國的政治體制，不管是在法律、在行政、在投資、在具體的措施方面，都是對這群人有利，對於普通的老百姓不利。

財經專欄作家廖仕明：「 就是說在目前的中國，普通的老百姓消費減少，是因為收入分配不均造成的，也就是說有人很富、有人很窮，雖然中國的GDP增長很快，看上去百分之八甚至百分之九、百分之十，但是它增長的大部分，在那些有錢的權貴階層所壟斷，他會增加投資，他會拿到國外去，他會買國外的奢侈品，他甚至到國外去買房子，或者是他去炒房價，而對普通的老百姓來講，他並沒有增加多少錢，所以他的消費不可能跟經濟有同步。」

簡天倫認為，中國如果還繼續維持一黨專政的話，那麼任何的改革，都是使中國貧富差距拉的越來越大，中國現在權力財產化是最嚴重的，所以要改革的話，只能從政府的腐敗這方面改革，才能防止權力財產化。

經濟學家簡天倫博士：「這次王立軍薄熙來這個事件，看出來他們利益集團之間發生矛盾，所以就在狗咬狗了，在這樣個情況之下，他們想掩蓋也掩蓋不住了，如果他們不改的話，那只有等老百姓來推翻這個政府了，所以我覺得胡溫他們要明智一點的話呢，趕快把共產黨的體制拋棄掉。」

網友發表文章指出，軍警已被器化，刑訴法73條已通過，連律師也要宣誓擁護黨了。「維穩」已經維到滿街軍警荷槍實彈、盤查行人的程度，這輪改革「深化」的天機何在？這種一言堂的「改革」也叫改革嗎？這種公權力缺失下的改革是值得支持和期待的嗎？

採訪/常春 編輯/黃容 後製/蕭宇

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The Reform of China Needs to Start from Its Govenment

CCP Premier Wen Jiabao commented in a “two sessions”

press conference this year.

With economic development, China encountered problems,

such as unfair distribution, lack of credibility, corruption etc.

All of a sudden, the term “reform”

appeared in the major media.

Some scholars pointed out that the CCP conducts

an intervention-mad policy on market.

The economic and social contradictions are almost near

critical point, with corruption spreadingacross the country.

Therefore, economic reform must go after the power source

changes. Liao Shiming, a financial columnist said that there are three

engines for any economy.

The first is export, the second is domestic demand,

and the third is public investment.

China is an export-oriented country, which means exports

account for a large part of China's economic growth.

After the international economic downturn in 2008,

the international demand on Chinese products weakened.

Therefore, the CCP began to emphasize enhancing

domestic demand in recent years.

Financial columnist Liao Shiming: “The volume of currency

issued is very large, and it will inevitably lead to inflation.

So everything was been marked up since 2010.

That's what we see in China now.”

With the economy slowing down, domestic prices are rising,

as well as international markets fluctuating.

High inflation in China leads to Chinese'wealth shrinking.

Dr. Jian Tianlun, an economist commented: “A premise

for China's economic reform is maintaining CCP power.

Every change in China, including two-track system,

agriculture/industry transferring, exports, investments, stock market, real estate, etc, gets some people rich.

But who are these people? They are CCP leaders

and their relatives.

For example, exports are based on undervalued

exchange rates in the1980s.

At that time, many CCP leaders' children joined

the export sector and made money.”

Liao Shiming said that China belongs to crony capitalism.

People with wealth and power combine to form

a new group of interests.

China's political system, whether legal, administration,

investment, or specific measures are beneficial for these people, but not for common people.

Financial columnist Liao Shiming: “Common people in China

spend less due to unfair distribution,

so some people get very rich, while others get very poor.

Although China's GDP has grown rapidly in 8%, 9%

or even 10%.

Most of the increasing part is monopolized

by the powerful class.

The powerful people may increase investment, directly

invest to foreign countries and buy luxury goods.

They may even go abroad to buy real estate properties.

However, there is little wealth increasing for common people,

so the common peoples consumption cannot go up with the economy increasing.”

Jian Tianlun said that if the one-party dictatorship continues

in China, then any reform will just enlarge the wealth gap.

The most serious problem in China is power-monetization.

Therefore, the reform must go against corruption

to stop power-monetization.

Dr. Jian Tianlun, an economist: “The Wang Lijun event

shows the conflict in interest groups.

It just likes a dogfight and it cannot be hidden anymore.

If the CCP makes no change, Chinese people

will overthrow it.

I think Hu and Wen should the abandon CCP,

this is the smart way.” Netizens published articles on the internet highlighting

the military and police becoming CCP tools.

73 of the Criminal Procedure Laws were passed,

and even lawyers have to swear an oath to the CCP.

Stability maintenance policy brings armed soldiers

and police everywhere on the street.

Where is the reform? Is the public authority losing reform

worthy of supporting and looking to the future?